TERRORISMRisk of Terrorist Acts Tied to Location, Demographic, and Social Characteristics

A new NIJ-supported study combines two existing analytical tools—risk terrain modeling and conjunctive analysis—to link location and risk of terrorism. This approach identifies areas of high risk, providing opportunities for more effective interventions.

According to the American Terrorism Study, 296 terrorism incidents occurred in the United States from 9/11 through 2019.

In domestic terrorism investigations, as in conventional policing, place matters. Although the location of terrorist violence is critical, the places where a terrorist lives and plans violent acts can also represent vital evidence.

Information about place helps law enforcement and intelligence agencies identify individuals or groups engaged in terrorism-related activities and provides opportunities to prevent terrorist attacks and apprehend the people involved. In addition, researchers can use location information to understand and predict how, when, and why a terrorist or terrorist group will act.

Prior spatial research looking at the “where” of terrorism-related activity focused on the site of the terrorist act, with an inference that planning of the activity occurred at or near the location of the terrorist act. However, other research has shown that most terrorists do not live near the places they attack. Rather, the locations where those who commit terrorist acts live and plan are often geographically distinct from where the attack is executed. In addition, incidents related to terrorist activity occur throughout the nation and in diverse communities.

Moving forward, understanding the place-related connections between residence, planning, and execution of attacks can give law enforcement and intelligence agencies sharper insights into patterns of extremist violence. A larger place-based dataset can also lead to more statistically significant research findings and may help expose people who plan acts of terror before they can implement them.

A Two-Tool Approach to Spatial Analysis of Terrorism Risk
Much of the existing research connecting location to the risk of terrorism in particular places has relied on statistical models designed to predict how a single factor can increase or decrease the risk of terrorism in a particular location.

However, the risk of terrorism is based on multiple, interacting factors, rather than on a single variable. With that in mind, a research team from the University of Arkansas and Rutgers University applied two advanced analytical tools for interpreting location data. The tools are: