ENERGY SECURITYEuropean Countries Would Be Wise to Assist Each Other with Regard to Energy

By Fabio Bergamin

Published 17 May 2023

If European countries collaborate, they can avoid severe energy scarcity due to a gas shortage. If the European countries act selfishly in times of gas shortage, Eastern Europe in particular will suffer. Eastern Europe is vulnerable because the entry points for natural gas are now in the west of the continent.

Prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Europe sourced a great deal of natural gas from Russia. But as a result of EU sanctions on Russia, this supply is no longer there. European countries have scrambled to find and secure new suppliers. But if both the war and these sanctions last into next winter, gas will remain in short supply – especially if next winter is a cold one and people need a lot of gas for heating. There is a distinct possibility that a shortage of gas will mean homes go unheated and will force industry to halt production. As a result, some countries might be tempted to priorities the needs of their own citizenry and economy over showing solidarity to other countries.

But how would the effects of such a selfish behavior play out? And how far removed from a show of solidarity would such a scenario be? Researchers in the group of Giovanni Sansavini, Professor of Reliability and Risk Engineering at ETH Zurich, have examined this using model calculations. One of the study’s key findings is that collaborating in solidarity is worthwhile. At the very least, it would allow European countries to avert drastic and involuntary energy demand curtailment.

Collaborating in solidarity means countries helping each other out when gas is in short supply and signing bilateral agreements to that effect. This would involve a country voluntarily lowering its energy demand in order to supply gas to other countries should they desperately need some. Only eight such agreements have been reached in Europe to date.

The alternative to collaborating in solidarity is acting selfishly. Several Central European countries such as Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands would be better off acting selfishly as they would then have more gas available. However, this would cause shortages in other countries. Hardest hit would be countries along the eastern edge of Europe: from Finland down through the Baltic States to the Balkans.

Redirected Gas Flows in Europe
The main reason for all of this is that the disappearance of Russia as a supplier caused a fundamental shift in Europe’s supply channels. Russia used to supply eastern European countries as well as Finland. Although Finland shares a border with Norway, a big producer of natural gas, there is no gas pipeline between these two Nordic countries.