Not-So-Great Powers | Loitering Munitions Are Shaping Conflicts | Poland’s Imperiled Democracy, and more

Arctic Ocean Could Be Ice-Free in Summer by 2030s, Say Scientists – This Would Have Global, Damaging and Dangerous Consequences  (Jonathan Bamber, The Conversation)
The Arctic Ocean could be ice-free in summer by the 2030s, even if we do a good job of reducing emissions between now and then. That’s the worrying conclusion of a new study in Nature Communications.
The Arctic has been experiencing climate heating faster than any other part of the planet. As it is at the frontline of climate change, the eyes of many scientists and local indigenous people have been on the sea ice that covers much of the Arctic Ocean in winter. This thin film of frozen seawater expands and contracts with the seasons, reaching a minimum area in September each year.The ice which remains at the end of summer is called multiyear sea ice and is considerably thicker than its seasonal counterpart. It acts as barrier to the transfer of both moisture and heat between the ocean and atmosphere. Over the past 40 years this multiyear sea ice has shrunk from around 7 million sq km to 4 million. That is a loss equivalent to roughly the size of India or 12 UKs. In other words, it’s a big signal, one of the most stark and dramatic signs of fundamental change to the climate system anywhere in the world.

Kakhovka Dam Breach Raises Risk for Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant – Receding Waters Narrow Options for Cooling  (Najmedin Meshkati, The Conversation)
A blast on June 6, 2023, destroyed the Kakhovka dam on the Dnieper River in eastern Ukraine. The rupture lowered water levels in a reservoir upriver at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in the city of Enerhodar. The reservoir supplies water necessary for cooling the plant’s shutdown reactors and spent fuel, which is uranium that has been largely but not completely depleted by the fission reaction that drives nuclear power plants.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which has inspectors on-site to monitor effects of the war at the plant, issued a statement saying that there was no imminent danger. Nevertheless, the destruction of the dam increases the risk of a disaster at the plant, a risk already heightened by ongoing combat in the area.

The UK Wants to Export Its Model of AI Regulation, but It’s Doubtful the World Will Want It  (Albert Sanchez-Graells, The Conversation)
Recent claims that artificial intelligence (AI) poses an existential threat to humanity seem to have jolted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak into action. Despite being seen as having a “pro-techology” stance, he appears to be quickly shifting position.
The Centre for AI Safety recently made mitigating the risk of extinction from AI a global priority. Against this background of caution, Sunak now reportedly wants the UK to lead in the development of guardrails to regulate AI growth.
During a trip to the US, Sunak was expected to try to persuade US president Joe Biden that the UK should play such a leading role on global AI guidelines, pitching the UK as the ideal hub for AI regulation. He seems to have met with limited success. So, is the case for this strong enough to persuade the US, and other global leaders?
Part of the anticipated pitch is that “the UK could promote a model of regulation that would be less ‘draconian’ than the approach taken by the EU, while more stringent than any framework in the US”. This is likely to raise some eyebrows and ruffle some feathers.
In part, this is because the UK’s “principles-based” approach can hardly be considered stringent at all. In its March 2023 white paper, the UK government laid out its “pro-innovation approach” to AI regulation. White papers are policy documents setting out plans for future legislation. The plans have been criticised for being too lax, already outdated, and lacking in meaningful detail.

One Way Attack: How Loitering Munitions Are Shaping Conflicts (Dan Gettinger, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)One-way attack drones are an increasingly critical element of contemporary armed conflicts. Nowhere is this more evident than in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where Russia’s war of aggression has underscored the many types and uses of these weapons, including the targeting of civilian homes and infrastructure with drones of Iranian origin. Elsewhere, the militaries of countries ranging from Argentina to Estonia have introduced or accelerated efforts to acquire expendable armed drones. These factors have contributed to a dynamic market for one-way attack drones, one that has grown exponentially in recent years.
Evolved from a weapon designed for a narrow mission, one-way attack drones currently play a significantly broader role on the battlefield. The development of one-way attack drones was an integral part of the transition of uncrewed aircraft from the era of high-speed target drones to that of remotely piloted vehicles, one that resulted in a burgeoning marketplace for armed and unarmed drones. The diversification of the marketplace for one-way attack drones and the further integration of these drones into the organization and operations of armed forces suggests a growing function for these weapons in future armed conflicts.

America Is Winning Against China in Oceania (Derek Grossman, Foreign Policy)
Washington enjoys the luxury of having close relationships with Australia and New Zealand—a treaty ally and close partner, respectively. Their strategic approaches largely mirror or complement the U.S. goal to freeze China out of the region. Australia and New Zealand are also full members of the Pacific Islands Forum, the primary regional decision-making group—which operates strictly on consensus, meaning the two countries’ views must be taken into account. Australia and New Zealand both expressed serious concerns about the Solomon Islands’ security deal with China; eventually, the Solomon Islands relented and promised Australia that there would be no permanent Chinese military presence in his country. Australia also inked a security deal with Vanuatu last December and is now finalizing its own defense pact with Papua New Guinea. It is also working on another such pact with Kiribati—which had also seen Chinese encroachments, including plans for a runway extension on a remote atoll that could have accommodated strategic bombers. Meanwhile, New Zealand is looking at maritime security plans with the Solomon Islands and is slated to sign a new status of forces agreement with Fiji.
There are other signs that the United States is coming out on top in the region. Most significantly, the Declaration on U.S.-Pacific Partnership, a policy readout from the historic U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit held at the White House last September, underscored the importance of cooperation on maritime security challenges. Although it is not directly mentioned in the document, China could reasonably be considered part of future “contingencies and emerging threats.” By contrast, when China’s then-Foreign Minister Wang Yi spent 10 days touring eight nations in the region in late May and early June 2022 to sell Beijing’s secretive Common Development Vision, he garnered little Pacific Islander receptivity to the plan, including its security components. In other words, the fact that Washington was able to talk publicly about maritime security—whereas Beijing could not even discuss it privately—is yet another reason to believe that Washington has cultivated greater trust and goodwill in Oceania than Beijing.

Bad for the Goose, Bad for the Gander: Drone Attacks in Russia Underscore Broader Risks  (Brianna Rosen, Just Security)
Beyond the risk of escalation, the recent drone attacks in Ukraine underscore another risk that critics of the U.S. drone program have long feared – that pervasive drone use against suspected terrorist targets in civilian areas will set troubling precedents for allies and adversaries to follow.
Indeed, the targeting of Russian officials who likely do not have a combat role and are not in the military chain of command raises the question of whether states increasingly are adopting the more elastic U.S. military’s definition of “direct participation of hostilities,” where civilians lose their immunity from attack through “effectively and substantially contribut[ing] to an adversary’s ability to conduct or sustain combat operations” (in the words of the Department of Defense’s Law of War Manual).

Poland’s Imperiled Democracy  (Yascha Mounk, The Atlantic)
A core component of liberal democracy is that the opposition must have the right to field the candidate of its choice, giving it a fair chance to oust the government at the ballot box. In Poland, which has become one of Europe’s most important economic and military powers, that axiom is under attack.
Poland may be poised to turn into a Potemkin democracy, an empty simulacrum of genuine self-government. And that once again reveals the alarming brittleness of democracy, with even the most vaunted democratic success stories deeply vulnerable to authoritarian capture.
Poland’s example should be a warning for other democracies facing authoritarian-populist challenges, including the U.S. Some American pundits argue that populism’s potency derives mainly from the stagnation of living standards. Although that idea has some plausibility, the experience of Poland suggests that rapid economic growth and widespread prosperity do not necessarily reduce support for authoritarian populists.

Netanyahu Sends in the Clowns  (Yair Rosenberg, The Atlantic)
A man of formidable political skill and constant awareness of his position, Netanyahu is famous for managing his image and never allowing his many critics to throw him off his stride. But for decades, he has worked assiduously to ensure that no one with similar talents ever ascends to the summit of right-wing Israeli politics. Rather than groom a successor, he has systematically drummed out every rival competent enough to challenge him, slowly hollowing out his Likud party and reducing it to a cult of personality. The Israeli political landscape is littered with former conservative rising stars dashed upon the rocks of Netanyahu’s ruthless reign. The ones who remain now lead smaller parties, on the outside of Likud looking in.
This successful strategy guaranteed that Netanyahu remained the undisputed king of Israel’s main right-wing party. But it has also ensured that when the 73-year-old premier inevitably departs the scene—whether due to his ongoing corruption trial or his age—there will be no one of his political caliber on the right to replace him.

Israel Is Officially Annexing the West Bank  (Michael Sfard, Foreign Policy)
A quiet bureaucratic maneuver by Netanyahu’s government has begun transferring control over the occupied territory from military to civilian leadership—violating international law.