WORLD ROUNDUPRussia Has a New Gulag | Thailand’s Tilt at Democracy | Europe Can Flex Its Military Muscle, and more

Russia Has a New Gulag  (Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic)
Today, a new version of that same Gulag system is being reconstructed, especially for Ukrainians. Journalists, war-crimes investigators, and specialized groups such as the Reckoning Project have already documented arrests, murders, prisons, and torture chambers in Ukrainian territories under Russian occupation. Slowly, it is becoming clear that these are not just ad hoc responses to Ukrainian resistance. They are part of a long-term plan: the construction of a sprawling system of camps and punishment colonies—a new Gulag. The Associated Press reported yesterday that it has evidence of at least 40 prison camps in Russia and Belarus, as well as 63 formal and informal prisons in occupied Ukraine, containing perhaps 10,000 Ukrainians. A few are prisoners of war: Gulagu.net, a Russian prison-monitoring group, has evidence of Ukrainian soldiers in Russian prisons who arrive without proper papers or POW status. But most of the Ukrainian prisoners are civilians who have been arrested or abducted in occupied territory.

Europe Can Flex Its Military Muscle to Protect Postwar Ukraine  (Benjamin Tallis, Foreign Policy)
But one genuine problem, from Washington’s perspective, is the relatively light contribution of European allies to their own collective security, despite increases in defense spending in countries like Germany. In light of America’s responsibilities in the Indo-Pacific, the Biden administration is understandably wary of taking the burden of an additional defense commitment—to Ukraine—that, even though Europeans are more directly affected, would fall mainly on the United States.
Breaking this impasse requires an interim solution that can overcome these obstacles. Of all the proposals on the table, only enlarging the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) mini-alliance fits the bill, as it would upgrade European defense in the long run while providing an immediately credible security offer to Ukraine.

Deadly Conflict in Vietnam’s Central Highlands Ramps Up Persecution of Ethnic Minorities  (VOA News)
Vietnamese authorities reportedly have heightened security and increased the persecution of ethnic minorities in the Central Highlands after a deadly attack last month on government buildings there.
The Central Highlands is home to Montagnards, an umbrella term for ethnic minorities native to the region, many of whom identify as Christian. They have historically been at odds with Vietnam’s one-party state and have grievances going back decades, relating to issues including land appropriation and religious persecution. Rights groups and Montagnard refugees living abroad say the government has intensified the crackdown on native highlanders.

World Swelters in Record-Breaking Heat  (Patricia Cohen, New York Times)
Less than two weeks after the Earth recorded what scientists said were likely its hottest days in modern history, punishing heat waves are gripping much of the Northern Hemisphere.
The record-breaking temperatures are being driven by emissions of heat-trapping gases, mainly caused by the burning of fossil fuels, and by the return of El Niño, a cyclical weather pattern.

Thailand’s Tilt at Democracy  (Petra Alderman, The Strategist)
The unexpected electoral victory of Move Forward in May was in large part born out of the 2020–21 student-led pro-democracy protests calling for reform of the previously sacrosanct monarchy. The 13 July prime ministerial vote was a conservative pushback against the changing tide of Thai politics and the increasingly vocal demands for democracy from Thais up and down the country. Thailand’s political system doesn’t make space for democracy, and while the Move Forward victory was an encouraging step forward, the question hangs on whether the party can translate it into a more democratic future for the country. That will depend to a large extent on the conservative Thai establishment and its willingness to let go of power.
Will the conservative Thai establishment continue to arrest the country’s prospects for democracy at all costs? If so, Thailand is likely to descend into street politics once again, with violence and further military coups back on the table.