CHINA WATCHU.S.-led Deterrence in South China Sea May Push China to Become More Confrontational: Analysts
The U.S. and its allies conducted several joint military exercises near the Philippines. Analysts say Washington and its allies are showcasing an “inter-alliance cohesion” through these coordinated activities. While Washington and its allies hope to shift China’s aggressive behaviors in the South China Sea through deterrence and other means, some defense experts say Beijing may view these moves as an intensification of U.S.-led efforts to contain it.
The South China Sea has seen an increase in military activity in recent weeks.
The U.S. and its allies conducted several joint military exercises near the Philippines. The drills come amid growing regional tension following the latest territorial standoff between China and the Philippines earlier in August.
Analysts say Washington and its allies are showcasing an “inter-alliance cohesion” through these coordinated activities.
“What I think the U.S. would like to do is to send China a message that the alliance is in lockstep with each other,” Euan Graham, senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told VOA in a phone interview.
Forces from Australia, the Philippines, and the United States conducted a series of military exercises beginning Aug. 21, carrying out mock beach landing and air assault maneuvers in areas near the South China Sea. It’s the largest military drill involving Canberra and Manila, which are both critical of Beijing’s increasingly aggressive posture in the disputed water.
In addition to the trilateral exercises, the Japanese Defense Ministry shared that Japan, Australia, the United States, and the Philippines held joint naval drills on Aug. 24.
Following the joint exercises, military leaders from the four countries held talks in Manila.
In a statement, U.S. 7th Fleet commander Vice Adm. Karl Thomas characterized the joint efforts as a commitment to “maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region while adhering to the Law of the Sea.”
U.S.-led Deterrence Could Make China More “Confrontational”
After the Philippines accused Chinese coast guard ships of spraying Filipino supply vessels with water cannons in early August, some observers said the U.S.-led efforts to increase its presence in the South China Sea were to uphold the rules-based order.
“These drills are the U.S. and its like-minded partners’ way of exercising deterrence against China,” Eleanor Hughes, a nonresident fellow at the Chicago-based research and policy analysis organization Econvue, told VOA in a Zoom interview.
While Washington and its allies hope to shift China’s aggressive behaviors in the South China Sea through deterrence and other means, some defense experts say Beijing may view these moves as an intensification of U.S.-led efforts to contain it.
“I think the U.S. and its partners are trying to shift China’s behavior for the better, but my concern is how can they do it to the extent in which they wouldn’t push China to the corner,” Collin Koh, a defense scholar at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, explained to VOA.
He adds that some developments