HEMISPHERIC SECURITYWhy Venezuela Is Threatening to Annex Guyana’s Oil-Rich Province of Essequibo
In an effort to improve his popularity ahead of the 2024 presidential elections, Venezuela’s dictator Nicolas Maduro has turned to the issue of the border between Venezuela and Guyana, which was settled in 1899. Venezuela claims that a great deal of what is modern day onshore and (oil-rich) offshore Guyana is Venezuelan – and Maduro let it be known that he may use force to achieve his goal. Maduro will have watched events unfold in Crimea and eastern Ukraine and perhaps picked up some lessons from Putin about how bully a near-neighbor, launch false-flag operations – and then choose your moment to strike.
The US air force has taken the unusual step of holding joint drills with Guyana as the United Nations scheduled an emergency meeting of the security council to discuss Venezuela’s threat to annex more than two-thirds of the oil-rich South American country.
Guyanese president, Irfaan Ali, appealed to Washington and to the UN after the Venezuelan president, Nicolás Maduro, announced that he had taken steps to formalize the incorporation of Essequibo – an oil-rich 160,000sq km region of neighboring Guyana – as part of Venezuela.
Maduro is a populist nationalist and a dictator, whose country is wracked by poverty. This has contributed to the exodus of more than seven million citizens. Mindful of the fact that presidential elections are due in Venezuela in 2024, Maduro has turned to an issue that he hopes will lead to a rapid turn-around in his popularity.
Venezuela’s territorial dispute with neighboring Guyana is a longstanding one. It is arguably made worse by the news that there might be oil and gas potential in Essequibo – not just on land but also under the seabed.
In 2015, Maduro issued a decree reiterating Venezuela’s claim and repudiated any plans to exploit resources in Guyana’s territorial sea and exclusive economic zone. Most recently, he has been seen on national television holding a revised map of Venezuela, depicting a country that now includes about 70% of Guyana.
In 2022, Guyana began an oil licensing round, and auctioned off 14 exploration blocks. It is thought that the region has the potential to produce at least 12-15 billion oil-equivalent barrels overall – and possibly even as high as 25 billion oil-equivalent barrels.
The oil licensing reference map itself is interesting because it displays the entire licensed area and highlights that the initial 14 blocks lie towards the east of the country and closer to the undisputed international maritime boundary with Suriname.
At least eight blocks received bids, which have not been disclosed, involving a suite of oil and gas companies including Qatar Energy and the Brazilian operator, Petrobras. The larger offshore license area runs right up to the current international boundary with Venezuela.
Major western companies such as Exxon-Mobil and Total Energies are interested in this potential. All of which suggest that third-party companies (and their sponsoring national governments) recognize Guyanese sovereignty and the international boundary with Venezuela as legitimate.