High Noon at Second Thomas Shoal
China has identified the beleaguered garrison at Second Thomas Shoal as a weak link among the South China Sea features physically occupied by the Philippines and, by extension, the US-Philippines alliance.
China has identified the beleaguered garrison at Second Thomas Shoal as a weak link among the South China Sea features physically occupied by the Philippines and, by extension, the US-Philippines alliance.
While Manila has held its nerve against Beijing’s mounting pressure tactics and holds the moral high ground in the South China Sea, it’s not clear yet that it has a viable strategy to counter Beijing’s maritime juggernaut.
China is obviously willing to escalate. As it does, the Philippines, in trying to hang on, will probably need military support from the United States, its treaty ally. Another violent incident could invoke the US obligation to defend the Philippines against armed attack.
Since taking power in 2022, the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has got several important things right in the South China Sea.
First, Marcos has publicly laid out a clear and principled stance, founded on international law. This has helped generate sympathy and support for Manila as a plucky David standing up to Beijing’s Goliath. The turnaround in the Philippines’ international standing since the term of former president Rodrigo Duterte is remarkable.
The Marcos government has successfully revived international interest in the 2016 award of an ad hoc tribunal that ruled that China’s claims to Philippine waters were unlawful. The award had languished in abeyance under Duterte. Also in the legal realm, Manila on 15 June submitted an extended continental shelf claim to the United Nations, showing China it had not been intimidated from pursuing claims in the South China Sea. The continental shelf claim is likely to provoke protests from other Southeast Asian countries, but Manila has been quietly working at ameliorating boundary disputes with such neighbors, especially Vietnam.
Second, the Philippine Coast Guard’s campaign to bring transparency to China’s coercive actions in the maritime domain and information warfare has brought a new level of awareness to the South China Sea. China cannot credibly refute bullying allegations when the evidence is in plain view and on social media.
Third, in April, the president’s office created a National Maritime Council to coordinate South China Sea policy. This comprises the key government maritime stakeholders, including the departments of defense, foreign affairs and transportation; the latter oversees the Coast Guard. The new body, which met this week, should subsume the existing National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea.
