As Iran Picks a President, a Nuclear Shift | Trump’s Return Would Transform Europe | Pakistan Unveils New Counterterrorism Plan, and more

Ecuador Ends Visa-Free Entry for Chinese Nationals  (Tracy Liu, VOA News)
Ecuador says it will suspend visa-free entry into the country for Chinese citizens, starting July 1, citing a “worrying” increase in irregular migration.
Over the past few years, Ecuador has been the starting point for many of the thousands of Chinese citizens who have decided to take the long and treacherous journey through South America, Central America and Mexico to reach the southern U.S. border.
Some who have already migrated to the United States say Ecuador’s decision and the growing resolve of both Washington and Beijing to stop the flow of illegal migration is a sign that the door may be closing for those seeking to “zouxian” or “walk the line” – as the journey is popularly described in Chinese.

Vietnam Confronts China with Island Building in South China Sea  (Le Nguyen, VOA Newa)
Vietnam has ramped up its building of islands in the disputed South China Sea to bolster its position in relation to China, say experts, but does not pose any threat to the other main claimant in the area, the Philippines.
Since November last year, Vietnam has accelerated the expansion of its outposts in the Spratly Islands, according to a report published earlier this month by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, or AMTI, at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
According to the report, Vietnam constructed 280 hectares (1 square mile) of land across 10 features it controls in the archipelago in the first half of 2024, compared with a total of 301 hectares (1.2 square miles) in the first 11 months of 2023 and the whole of 2022 combined.
Beijing still controls the three largest outposts in the Spratly chain but, thanks to the recent dredging and landfill work, Hanoi now controls the next four largest. Manila’s largest island in the archipelago — Thitu — ranks ninth in size.
Vietnam and the Philippines have been locked in a decadeslong territorial dispute with China over the South China Sea and its islands despite a ruling in 2016 by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague that dismissed China’s claim to most of the sea. That claim infringes on the exclusive economic zones of several coastal states.

Trump Eyes Bigger Trade War in Second Term  (Ana Swanson and Alan Rappeport, New York Times)
As president, Mr. Trump presided over the biggest increase in U.S. tariffs since the Great Depression, hitting China, Canada, the European Union, Mexico, India and other governments with stiff levies. They hit back, imposing tariffs on American soybeans, whiskey, orange juice and motorcycles. U.S. agricultural exports plummeted, prompting Mr. Trump to send $23 billion to farmers to help offset losses.
Now, as he runs for president again, Mr. Trump is promising to ratchet up his trade war to a much greater degree. He has proposed “universal baseline tariffs on most foreign products,” including higher levies on certain countries that devalue their currency. In interviews, he has floated plans for a 10 percent tariff on most imports and a tariff of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. He has also posited cutting the federal income tax and relying on tariffs for revenue instead.
Mr. Trump, who once proclaimed himself “Tariff Man,” has long argued that tariffs would boost American factories, end the gap between what America imported and what it exported and increase American jobs.
His first round of levies hit more than $400 billion worth of imports, including steel, solar panels, washing machines and Chinese goods like smart watches, chemicals, bicycle helmets and motors. His rationale was that import taxes would revive American manufacturing, reduce reliance on foreign goods and allow U.S. companies to better compete against cheap products from China and other countries.
Economists say the tariffs did reduce imports and encouraged U.S. factory production for certain industries, including steel, semiconductors and computer equipment. But that came at a very high cost, one that most likely offset any overall gains. Studies show that the tariffs resulted in higher prices for American consumers and factories that depend on foreign inputs, and reduced U.S. exports for certain goods that were subject to retaliation.

Trump’s Return Would Transform Europe  (Hal Brands, Foreign Policy)
Which is the real Europe? The mostly peaceful, democratic, and united continent of the past few decades? Or the fragmented, volatile, and conflict-ridden Europe that existed for centuries before that? If Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election in November, we may soon find out.
Trump flirted with pulling the United States out of NATO during his first term as president. Some of his former aides believe he might really do it if he gets a second. And it’s not just Trump talking this way: As U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, one of the leading America First acolytes, has argued, “[The] time has come for Europe to stand on its own feet.” Even among those who don’t explicitly subscribe to the America First ethos, the pull of competing priorities—particularly in Asia—is growing stronger. A post-American Europe is becoming ever more thinkable. It’s worth asking what kind of place that might be.
Optimists hope that Europe can keep on thriving—even if it loses the U.S. security umbrella that NATO leaders will celebrate at the alliance’s 75th anniversary summit in Washington in July. The United States might go home, in this view, but a Europe that has grown wealthy, stable, and reliably democratic over the past 80 years is ready to act as a constructive, independent force in a multipolar world.
More likely, however, a post-American Europe would struggle to meet the threats it faces—and might even revert, eventually, to the darker, more anarchic, more illiberal patterns of its past. “Our Europe today is mortal. It can die,” French President Emmanuel Macron warned in late April. In an America First world, it just might.

Pakistan Unveils New Counterterrorism Plan  (Michael Kugelman, Foreign Policy)
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s office announced a “reinvigorated” national counterterrorism strategy last Saturday, promising a combination of “kinetic efforts,” new legislation to bolster terrorism prosecutions, and steps to counter violent extremism.
On Tuesday, Sharif clarified that the strategy, which Islamabad emphasizes is not yet finalized, will focus more on intensifying existing intelligence-based operations than on launching new military offensives. Still, the shift marks one of the biggest steps yet to tackle an increasing terrorist threat in Pakistan, where attacks increased by two-thirds between 2022 and 2023.
Pakistan has held talks with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or the Pakistani Taliban, which presents the country’s main threat; pressured the Afghan Taliban to curb anti-Pakistan militant activity in Afghanistan; and staged cross-border strikes in Afghanistan. None of these policies has solved the problem.
Some analysts rightly attribute the timing of the decision to the political moment. After a long period of internal turmoil, some political and economic stability has returned to Pakistan, giving the powerful military the space to pursue this strategy, which could help it regain public support after recent hits to its public image.
However, there is also good reason to believe that China was a motivating factor driving the new plan—and that it might even play a role in the strategy once it is implemented.
China is Pakistan’s closest ally, and yet it faces serious terrorism risks in Pakistan today. The most active militant groups in Pakistan—the TTP, the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA)—have all targeted Chinese nationals or interests. Many Chinese investment projects are in western Pakistan, near the border with Afghanistan, which is especially vulnerable to terrorism.