ELECTION INTERFERENCEKey U.S. Adversaries ‘Hiding Their Hand’ as They Hone Election Influence Operations
The latest assessment from U.S. intelligence officials, shared Monday, reveals that Russia, China, and Iran are already deep into campaigns seeking to sway voters and undermine confidence in the democratic process. The intelligence assessment shows that just like in 2016 and in 2020, Russian influence efforts are focused on support for the candidacy of Trump.
Russia, China and Iran are likely to seize upon the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump and the decision by current President Joe Biden to not seek reelection as part of ongoing influence operations aimed at impacting the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
The latest assessment from U.S. intelligence officials, shared Monday, comes less than 100 days until U.S. voters go to the polls on November 5, with all three U.S. adversaries already deep into campaigns seeking to sway voters and undermine confidence in the democratic process.
“These actors are closely monitoring U.S. political developments, especially the events that occurred this month regarding the presidential race,” a U.S. intelligence official told reporters, briefing on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive findings.
“We expect these actors to adjust to these events and incorporate them into their influence narratives,” the official added.
U.S. intelligence officials said it is too early to be able to point to specific examples of how the three U.S. adversaries are making use of the attempted assassination or of Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race and endorse Vice President Kamala Harris.
But they said while specific tactics used by the U.S. adversaries are expected to change, the overall strategies and preferences remain constant.
A U.S. intelligence assessment shared earlier this month indicated that just like in 2016 and in 2020, Russian influence efforts were focused on support for the candidacy of Trump.
The intelligence assessment issued Monday confirmed that remains the case.
“Russia’s core interest in this election is opposing candidates who want to offer aid to Kyiv,” the intelligence official said. “We expect Russia’s focus will remain on that.”
Officials said, as with their earlier assessment, that China remains cautious, seeing little benefit from the election of any of the major party candidates.
Iran, however, has decided to take sides, using its influence campaign to hurt the Trump campaign.
“Iran’s preference is essentially a reflection of its desire to not worsen tensions with the United States,” the intelligence official told reporters. “Iran is opposing the candidate that Tehran’s leaders perceive would increase those tensions.”
The Trump campaign has previously rejected U.S. intelligence assertions that Moscow is seeking to boost the former president’s election chances, pointing to public comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin praising Biden.
