DECLINING VIOLENT-CRIME LEVESGun Violence in Philadelphia Plummeted in 2024 − Researchers Aren’t Sure Why, but Here Are 3 Factors at Play
Recent data shows a notable decline in homicides and shootings in Philadelphia over the past two years. we know that there is no single explanation for the drop in gun violence. Rather, many factors at both the local and national levels could be playing a role.
Philadelphia experienced a surge in shootings and homicides during the COVID-19 years that disproportionately affected young Black and Latino men in economically disadvantaged neighborhoods with drug markets.
In 2020, Philadelphia had 499 homicides – nearly 150 more than the previous year. Gun violence worsened in 2021 – with 562 homicides that year – and then dropped slightly in 2022.
Fortunately, recent data shows a notable decline in these crimes over the past two years. As of late September 2024, homicides are down 40% for the year to date compared with 2023. And the number of shooting victims has decreased similarly – from 1,236 in the first eight months of 2023 to 758 for the same period in 2024.
As professors of criminal justice who live in Greater Philadelphia, we know that there is no single explanation for the drop in gun violence. Rather, many factors at both the local and national levels could be playing a role.
Police and Justice System Return to (Sort of) Normalcy
A shortage of police – driven by pandemic-era resignations, retirements and injuries – significantly affected cities like Philadelphia.
Additionally, the Philadelphia Police Department’s number of traffic and pedestrian stops dropped drastically. This was due to both the need to adhere to social distancing guidelines during the COVID-19 pandemic and a widespread reluctance among officers to engage with citizens after massive protests in response to the murder of George Floyd. In fact, the number of documented stops plummeted by 83% from 2019 to 2020 alone.
As the year progressed, the department struggled with officers’ abuse of the Pennsylvania Heart and Lung Act. This statewide disability program allows police and firefighters injured on the job to collect their full salaries.
By September 2021, 14% of Philadelphia patrol officers were out of work on “no duty” disability leave, according to investigations by both The Philadelphia Inquirer and the city controller.
Though up-to-date data is unavailable, there was a 31% drop in injury claims by December 2022, 10 months after the Inquirer investigation was published.
More recently, the Philadelphia Police Department has attempted to increase its ranks through intensified recruitment efforts. It also lowered physical requirements and eliminated certain residency restrictions.
Despite these efforts, staffing remains nearly 20% lower than in 2019. This places considerable strain on the existing workforce.
