POLITICAL VIOLENCEThreats of Political Violence Are Distorting Reality
Mobilizations by extremist groups in 2024 are on track to be at their lowest level since 2020, according to a new report, but public officials — particularly those who work on elections — continue to face hostile threats.
This month alone, authorities arrested a North Carolina man with a rifle and pistol after he allegedly threatened to harm FEMA workers responding to Hurricane Helene, the Arizona Democratic Party closed a campaign office that was repeatedly struck by gunfire, and an Alaska man was arrested after vowing to “put a bullet” into the head of multiple Supreme Court justices.
These are just some of the politically charged threats or acts of violence involving guns to arise so far this election season. They follow two attempts on Donald Trump’s life in which both would-be assassins wielded semiautomatic assault-style rifles. Research shows that threats against public officials, many of which involve guns, have risen in recent years and are now routine.
“Firearms have long been a political issue in this country,” said Dr. Garen Wintemute, director of UC Davis’s Violence Prevention Research Program. “Sadly, they too often become political actors.”
Although the political climate is volatile, in part because of the availability and lethality of firearms, it does not necessarily follow that America is actually experiencing greater political violence. By some measures, in fact, the opposite appears to be true. Violence by extremist groups and instances of them mobilizing on the streets in 2024 are on track to be at their lowest level since 2020, according to a report released last month by ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), a nonprofit that began collecting information on extremist activity in January 2020.
Caveats are warranted. Results of such research vary based on methods of data collection and how terms like political violence are defined. As the ACLED report notes, its findings don’t mean that risks are not high. “Some of the deadliest acts of political violence in the United States were carried out by people who acted alone and were not affiliated with extremist groups,” it states. “Multiple scenarios surrounding the election could rapidly distort the current situation.”
