DRONE TERRORISMOn the Horizon: The Ukraine War and the Evolving Threat of Drone Terrorism
The Russo-Ukrainian war has become a critical “innovation hub” for drone warfare, accelerating advancements in the scale, speed, and range of drone operations. These developments are not only transforming the modern battlefield but also creating new opportunities for violent extremist organizations to enhance their operational impact and engage in surprise.
Summary
· The Russo-Ukrainian war has become a critical “innovation hub” for drone warfare.
· These developments create new opportunities for violent extremist organizations (VEOs) to enhance their operational impact.
· This will lead to a new burst of terror drone activity across key threat vectors.
· The war has normalized large-scale drone deployment, demonstrating the feasibility of launching coordinated drone swarms and phased attacks capable of overwhelming existing defenses.
· The widespread use of high-speed First-Person View (FPV) drones in Ukraine highlights the tactical value of speed and agility—capabilities that are increasingly within reach for terrorist actors.
· When paired with emerging technologies such as AI-assisted targeting, these systems could significantly increase the precision and impact of future terrorist attacks.
· There is also a growing threat of long-range drone operations.
· The convergence of drone warfare with other disruptive technologies—such as additive manufacturing and artificial intelligence—creates even more opportunities for extremists to be creative and to innovate with drones in the future.
· Counter-UAS systems and legal frameworks that guide their use are struggling to keep pace with these changes and challenge the ability of governments to respond quickly and effectively.
The Russo-Ukrainian War has emerged as an innovation hub. While “every war offers a window into how future wars will be waged,”1 the case of Ukraine stands apart as particularly unique. The conflict has revolutionized the role and scope of drone warfare and the operational use of artificial intelligence, pushing the boundaries of applied warfare in human-machine teaming. In addition, the sourcing of materiel inputs for the war has involved a combination of state-level assistance and the widespread, scaled, and innovative use of commercially available systems and components. This ranges from the deployment of thousands of DJI drones2 to the critical integration of commercial components in state-produced systems, such as Iran’s Shahed drones.3 The war has also been unique due to the diverse mix and convergence of actors who are supporting the two warring parties. General Bryan Fenton, the leader of U.S. Special Operations Command, recently noted that the conflict exemplifies a form of adversarial convergence: “This is not just Russia fighting Ukraine … It’s Russia, backed by Iranian drones, North Korean personnel and indirect Chinese contributions.”4
