Poland’s Choice: Democratic Promise vs Pull of Authoritarian Politics | Israel More Fearful of Trump Nuke Deal Than Obama’s | Germany Set to Replace ‘Unreliable’ U.S. as Guarantor of European Security, and more

Germany Steps Up to Replace ‘Unreliable’ U.S. as Guarantor of European Security  (Stefan Wolff, The Conversation)
Two statements from world leaders this week bear closer examination. On May 27, the US president Donald Trump took to his Truth Social social media channel to proclaim that if it wasn’t for him, “lots of really bad things would have already happened to Russia”. The following day the German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, announced that his country would assist Ukraine in developing long-range missiles to deploy against targets inside Russia. Both statements are quite extraordinary.
Even by Trump’s own standards, the public declaration by a sitting US president that he is protecting the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, is unprecedented. Putin is under indictment for war crimes and has been waging a war of aggression against Ukraine for more than three years after having illegally annexed Crimea over a decade ago. There can now be no doubt left that the US has become an unreliable ally for Ukraine and its European partners.
This is the context in which Merz’s announcement of increasing defense cooperation with Ukraine becomes significant. While Trump continues to chase an impossible deal with Putin – even after threatening to abandon his mediation efforts less than ten days ago – Germany has doubled down on Ukraine’s defence.
Not only that, but as the EU’s largest and Nato’s second-largest economy, Germany is now also aiming to turn its Bundeswehr (the German army, navy and air force) into the “strongest conventional army in Europe”. Its most senior military officer and chief of defense, Carsten Breuer, has published plans for a rapid and wide-ranging expansion of defense capabilities.

Nayib Bukele Is Devolving from Tech-savvy Reformer to Autocrat  (Economist)
El Salvador’s president is young, MAGA-friendly and ruthless.

Xi Jinping’s Plan to Overtake America in AI  (Economist)
China’s leaders believe they can outwit American cash and utopianism.

The Two Extremists Driving Israel’s Policy  (Gershom Gorenberg, The Atlantic)
One is an ideologue, the other a rabble-rouser. Both are pushing their country to places once unthinkable.

Migrant Return Hubs Could Be Hijacked by Russian Spies  (Matt Dathan, The Times)
MI6 has raised concerns about Keir Starmer’s proposals to send failed asylum seekers to the Balkans.

Violent Extremist Disinformation: Insights from Nigeria and Beyond  (ICCT)
The intentional spread of false or misleading information to inflict harm, commonly referred to as disinformation, raises unprecedented challenges in today’s digital age. This phenomenon becomes even more concerning when strategically leveraged by violent extremist actors to disseminate hateful narratives, incite violence, and recruit followers. While both disinformation and violent extremism are widely recognized as critical global threats, their intersections have however received limited scholarly and political attention. Drawing on findings from a multiyear EU-funded project, this policy brief seeks to address this gap and raise awareness on the complex dynamics and potential harms associated with disinformation propagated by extremist actors

Netanyahu Intervened and Blocked Shin Bet Investigations Against Jewish Terrorism  (Gidi Weitz and Amos Harel, Haaretz)
The director of Israel’s Shin Bet security agency, Ronen Bar, protested to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over his refusal to authorize wiretaps in several cases involving suspects in nationalistically motivated crimes and Jewish terrorism. In a letter sent to Netanyahu several weeks ago, Bar warned of the decision’s potential harm to national security. A political source familiar with the details told Haaretz that Netanyahu’s move was “unprecedented.” Security sources described Netanyahu’s conduct in the matter as exceptional and dangerous.

AFRICOM Asks for Help Deterring Terrorism, After Trump Pulls Aid to Allied Countries  (Meghann Myers, DefenseOne)
Deterring the spread of terrorism in Africa and countering China’s push to influence African governments got a lot harder after the Trump administration cut off billions in foreign aid earlier this year, officials say. U.S. Africa Command, which does everything from helping the Somalian military target strikes on al-Shabaab to sending Army civil affairs soldiers to build schools in Cameroon, is working out what their new role on the continent will look like as the U.S. halts aid that was meant to stabilize those countries and make it easier for them to defend themselves.