WORLD ROUNDUPGermany Is Building a Big Scary Army | Asia’s Forgotten Hellscape | Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Near 1.4 Million, and more

Germany Is Building a Big Scary Army  (Economist)
Its allies are ready. But are the Germans?

Pro-Trump Candidate Wins Poland’s Presidential Election – a Bad Omen for the EU, Ukraine and Women  (dam Simpson, The Conversation)
Poland’s presidential election runoff will be a bitter pill for pro-European Union democrats to swallow.
The nationalist, Trumpian, historian Karol Nawrocki has narrowly defeated the liberal, pro-EU mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, 50.89 to 49.11%.
The Polish president has few executive powers, though the office holder is able to veto legislation. This means the consequences of a Nawrocki victory will be felt keenly, both in Poland and across Europe.
With this power, Nawrocki, backed by the conservative Law and Justice party, will no doubt stymie the ability of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his Civic Platform-led coalition to enact democratic political reforms.
This legislative gridlock could well see Law and Justice return to government in the 2027 general elections, which would lock in the anti-democratic changes the party made during their last term in office from 2015–2023. This included eroding Poland’s judicial independence by effectively taking control of judicial appointments and the supreme court.
Nawrocki’s win has given pro-Donald Trump, anti-liberal, anti-EU forces across the continent a shot in the arm. It’s bad news for the EU, Ukraine and women.

U.S. Proposes Interim Step in Iran Nuclear Talks Allowing Some Enrichment  (Farnaz FassihiDavid E. Sanger and Jonathan Swan, New York Times)
An outline by the Trump administration would allow Iran to continue enriching uranium at low levels while a broader arrangement is worked out that would block the country’s path to a nuclear weapon.

A New Era of Trade Warfare Has Begun for the U.S. and China  (Ana Swanson, New York Times)
Instead of battling over tariffs, Washington and Beijing have turned to a potentially far more harmful strategy: flexing their control over global supply chains

Troop Casualties in Ukraine War Near 1.4 Million, Study Finds  (Helene Cooper, New York Times)
With high casualty figures and the slow pace of Russia’s territorial gains, President Vladimir V. Putin could face years more of a grinding war of attrition in Ukraine.

Is Civil War Coming to Europe?  (Ross Douthat, New York Times)
Whether the debate is occasioned by a polemical book or a movie like last year’s “Civil War,” I consistently take the negative on the question of whether the United States is headed for a genuine civil war.
In those debates it’s usually liberals warning that populism or Trumpism is steering the United States toward the abyss. But with European politics the pattern is different: In France and Britain, and among American observers of the continent, a preoccupation with looming civil war tends to be more common among conservatives.

Anti-immigrant Leader Quits Dutch Cabinet, Toppling Government  (Annabelle Timsit, Washington Post)
Geert Wilders said his Party for Freedom would exit the Dutch governing coalition over disagreements on immigration and asylum, prompting the prime minister to resign.

Asia’s Forgotten Hellscape  (Economist)
A real-world demonstration of Chinese hegemony in action,