How Do the Militaries of Russia and Ukraine Stack Up?
The high casualty rates have strained both militaries. To an extent, the Ukrainian military has been able to adapt its tactics to accommodate the manpower shortage, using high-tech military drones, for example, to slow Russian advances and inflict high casualties. Ukraine reports having built 2.2 million drones last year and aims to produce 4.5 million this year. Ukraine is also building ground-based and sea-based drones, which were used last summer to drive the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea and open up the Black Sea to Ukrainian commerce. In a surprise attack on June 1, Ukraine’s intelligence service conducted a coordinated drone operation that successfully struck five Russian air bases, destroying roughly forty military aircraft, according to Zelenskyy. Drones are now inflicting an estimated 70 percent of the casualties on both sides. Russia, for its part, has turned to other recruitment tactics to boost its manpower, such as relying on foreign fighters. In November, for example, about ten thousand North Korean troops deployed to help the Russians counter Ukraine’s successful offensive in the Kursk region of Russia.
Both have also suffered significant equipment losses. Russia reportedly lost a total of fourteen thousand tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers and has turned to refurbishing Soviet-era armor and artillery to equip its expanding number of units. In the first half of 2024, delays in U.S. military and financial assistance left Ukraine with an acute ammunition shortage. At the time, Russia was reportedly firing at least five times as many artillery rounds as Ukraine. With continued support from foreign governments and heavy investment in its defense production sector, Ukraine has been able to overcome its equipment deficit and now boasts a defense industrial base that has grown more than tenfold since the start of the war. However, Ukraine’s defense industrial base remains far smaller than that of Russia, which continues to expand its already sizable defense production, albeit at high cost. For example, Russia recently reached their goal to ramp up their drone production to over one-hundred drones per day, contributing to the surge of drone attacks on Ukrainian cities in recent months.
How much do Russia and Ukraine spend on their militaries?
Ukraine’s military spending has increased exponentially since 2022. In the first year of the war alone, Ukraine’s military expenditure increased by over 50 percent, making it the eighth largest military spender in the world in 2023. Nevertheless, Russia continues to outspend Ukraine. Between 2023 and 2024, Russia’s military spending increased by 40 percent, surpassing Europe’s combined military expenditure over the same period. Both countries intend to continue this upward trajectory. Draft budget documents indicated Russia’s plan to increase its national defense budget to nearly $145 billion, 6.3 percent of its total gross domestic product (GDP), in 2025, while Ukraine’s approved state budget allocated roughly $53.7 billion, or 26 percent of its GDP, for defense and security.
How has foreign assistance affected Russia’s and Ukraine’s military capabilities?
Ukraine’s military relies heavily on support from its Western allies. The United States has led the majority of the effort to arm and equip Ukraine, providing them with advanced weapons, intelligence, training, and billions of dollars of other financial and military assistance. President Donald Trump temporarily paused U.S. support for Ukraine in March before resuming it, but the U.S. aid pipeline is running dry, and Trump has given no indication that he will support more U.S. aid for Kyiv. Though the United States has committed more security assistance than any other country, Europe as a whole accounts for roughly 60 percent of all financial and military aid to Ukraine. Indeed, with the future of U.S. assistance to Ukraine uncertain under the Trump administration, European countries such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom have stepped up their pledged support. For example, Germany announced it would provide thirty missiles to use on Patriot missile systems, while the Netherlands indicated its plans to supply a Hawkeye air defense system, an early warning mechanism. However, most experts argue that the current level of support is only enough to continue the current stalemate; it is not sufficient for a Ukrainian victory.
Molly Carlough is Research Associate, Center for Preventive Action, at CFR. Benjamin Harris is Research Associate, Europe and U.S. Foreign Policy, at CFR. Will Merrow and Michael Bricknell contributed to the graphics for this In Brief. This article is published courtesy of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).
