DEPORTATIONSDeportations to Add Almost $1 Trillion in Costs to the “Big Beautiful Bill”
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1). will direct an astounding $168 billion of the budget to immigration and border law enforcement, and there is even more for agencies that indirectly support immigration law enforcement. But the CBO’s cost estimate is deficient in three ways, not to mention the fact that immigrants are reducing the deficit and debt, so removing them will dramatically increase future debt.
The House of Representatives recently passed its budget reconciliation spending bill, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R. 1). The bill changes numerous aspects of tax and spending law, but its most significant spending increases are for immigration. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the bill will direct an astounding $168 billion of the budget to immigration and border law enforcement, and there is even more for agencies that indirectly support immigration law enforcement.
However, the CBO’s cost estimate is deficient in three ways. First, CBO assumes that all this increase is temporary, and second, it will happen gradually over the next 10 years, rather than in an immediate, reckless spending spree. Most importantly, it neglects the more significant cost of removing immigrants who would have paid more in taxes than they received in benefits. Properly considered, the actual cost of H.R. 1’s immigration enforcement spending is nearly $1 trillion more than the CBO estimates. When seen in the context of the overall costs of the bill, mass deportation would account for almost a quarter of the bill’s total price tag.
Congress, not CBO, is primarily to blame for these flaws. The CBO must assess the immigration legislation at face value, and under its terms, the legislation provides only a one-time boost to spending. Moreover, CBO must score the bill in accordance with the instructions provided by Congress. Clearly, some members did not want to see an accurate score of mass deportation.
Immigration Enforcement Spending Is Already Extreme.
The $168 billion is, by itself, an unimaginable sum. Without H.R. 1, Congress had already appropriated twice as much money to America’s border police as all other federal law enforcement combined. In FY 2025, immigration and border enforcement accounted for at least two-thirds of all federal law enforcement. The actual value is even higher right now because the Trump administration is diverting thousands of agents from other federal law enforcement agencies and much of the military to enforcing immigration and border law.
