ISRAEL-IRAN WARIsrael and Iran: An Early Read
It’s too soon to tell how exactly the current waves of Israeli strikes could transform the region, but one thing is clear: Israel’s actions have fundamentally reshaped the security landscape of the Middle East in the span of less than two years. These two years saw the collapse of Iran’s regional strategy as its two main proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have been decimated, while Syria, the linchpin of Iran’s regional aspirations, has changed sides when the country’s Sunni majority removed the pro-Iran Assad regime in December last year.
Last night, Israel began a sweeping series of direct attacks against Iran. Although the smoke has yet to fully clear, CFR’s leading regional experts convened this morning to discuss what we know so far and what to expect moving forward.
What Happened, and Why Now?
Talk of a potential strike by Israel on Iran has been around for years, decades even. So, why now? There are a number of plausible reasons. The expiration yesterday of President Donald Trump’s 60-day deadline for nuclear negotiations with the regime removed a potential objection from the U.S. that Israel was undermining his diplomatic initiative. In addition, the highly unusual censure from the International Atomic Energy Agency earlier this week that Iran had taken steps towards further concealing its nuclear enrichment activities and, potentially, accelerating its nuclear weapons program, was another action-forcing event.
More broadly, the rules of the game in the Middle East have fundamentally changed over the last couple of years. As Steven Cook and Elliott Abrams observed, in a post-October 7 world, Israel has enjoyed significant success in unilaterally exercising its military capabilities to destroy its two most proximate foes, Hamas and Hezbollah, and shattering Iran’s broader proxy network in the region. Iran proper was always going to be a harder target but, as Elliott noted, after a steady stream of surgical strikes, including October and April 2024 operations which destroyed much of Iran’s advanced air defense network, Israel may have decided they had a window of opportunity which could at some point close.
The Israelis took a bet on Trump. Having earlier opposed an attack, Trump ultimately called it “excellent.” As Elliott put it, “This is a little bit reminiscent to me of the 2007 Israeli attack on the Syrian nuclear reactor, because President Bush—George W. Bush said to them, we’re going to do diplomacy; we’re going to go IAEA, we’re going to go U.N., and the Israeli response was, no, no, no, no, that’s not good enough; we’re going to take it out. And Bush’s response was, OK, you do what you have to do.”
What does it mean for Iran? This was the single most devastating attack both on a series of targets, and on the legitimacy of the regime itself.
