ISRAEL-IRAN WARHow Might Israel Attack Iran’s Underground Nuclear Plant? A 2024 Raid in Syria Could e a Template
One of the key elements of Iran’s nuclear-weapons program is the uranium enrichment plant at Fordow, where about 5,000 centrifuges operate in an underground centrifuge farm 80 meters below ground. Israel may find it difficult to destroy the facility in an aerial attack — it does not have the U.S.-made 30,000lb GBU-57 MOP (massive ordnance penetrator) or the planes to carry this munition. But it may decide to destroy Fordow in a daring ground attack, similar to the one it conducted in Syria on 8 September 2024, in which Israeli commandoes destroyed an underground Syrian missile production facility.
Operation Rising Lion has been a concerted effort by the Israel Defense Forces to degrade Iran’s nuclear program. Launched on June 13, the operation has targeted key nuclear installations, logistical hubs and Iranian nuclear scientists, key intelligence and military personal.
Israel has justified the attack by claiming that Iran was on a verge of a “breakout” in its nuclear program. This means it would be able to break out of its commitments under the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which it ratified in 1970.
This contradicts the threat assessment briefing delivered by the director of US national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, on March 25 when she said: “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
But whatever the veracity of claim and counter claim, Israel has been able to combine precise intelligence with the effective suppression of Iran’s air defense network. This has enabled the Israeli air force to inflict extensive damage on the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz and the heavy water plant at Arak, as well as associated research facilities in Tehran.
The attacks have also destroyed two-thirds of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers, according to the latest Israeli estimates. In response, Iran has fired salvoes of ballistic missiles at Israel, some of which have penetrated the much-vaunted Iron Dome missile defense system, due to the sheer number of missiles launched.
But despite causing between 20 and 30 civilian casualties in Israel (compared to more than 600 in Iran), and despite the fear of attack among much of Israel’s population, little strategic damage appears to have been inflicted.
Within three days of launching operation rising lion, Israel claimed complete aerial supremacy over Iran. But despite this, the key enrichment facility at Fordow, close to the ancient religious city of Qom has proved impervious to Israel’s existing military capabilities.
The facility is buried hundreds of meters inside a mountain and designed to survive a full scale aerial bombardment. All reports are that besides some limited damage to the ground-level entrance and ventilation shafts, Israeli attacks on the site have failed to affects its operational capacity.
Another enrichment facility near Natanz at Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La, or “Pickaxe Mountain,” is thought to be even deeper inside a mountain.
