The Taiwan Scenarios 4: The Catastrophe

its hopes of a quick victory would disintegrate.

What ties these four scenarios together is how quickly they spiral beyond Beijing’s control. China’s doctrine on escalation management overestimates its ability to control conflict. It’s reliance on academic doctrine and limited real-world crisis experience encourage overconfidence. The Chinese Communist Party may imagine that it can calibrate risk, strike surgically and intimidate Taiwan into submission. But by the end of week one, the regional and global consequences may already be uncontrollable. China’s leaders might face a reality where, no matter the method, the cost of action has vastly outweighed any political reward. Instead of unification, they would have got global isolation, a broken economy and the prospect of military failure and a loss of legitimacy.

How Taiwan’s Partners Can Prevent These Scenarios
First, deterrence must be visible, credible, and multilateral. Australia, Japan, the US and others must ensure that Beijing sees a united front, one that is willing to impose costs even in grey-zone scenarios like a quarantine. The development of joint frameworks, such as those proposed by former US assistant secretary of defense Ely Ratner, would facilitate deeper regional security integration. Combined military exercises by Taiwan’s friends, coordinated scenario planning and real-time intelligence sharing should all be part of the playbook now—not after a crisis begins.

Second, economic resilience must be built now. If Beijing believes the region depends too much on its trade to respond meaningfully, it will be emboldened. Australia should continue diversifying supply chains away from exposure to China, particularly in such sectors as energy, rare earths and high tech.

Also, Taiwan must be treated as a partner, not a problem. Quiet but steady support—ranging from cybersecurity cooperation to training exchanges—strengthens deterrence without crossing Beijing’s red lines. Publicly reinforcing Taiwan’s role as a responsible stakeholder in the region helps challenge Beijing’s propaganda and counters its attempts to isolate Taipei.

Finally, messaging matters. China must understand that no scenario, no matter how dressed up in lawfare or maritime euphemisms, would go completely unanswered. The clearer and earlier Taiwan’s partners detail what is happening on the ground, as the US did just before Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and articulate the consequences of aggression, the more deterrence will hold. This requires unity, not just among allies but within domestic politics. Beijing bets on Western division; coordinated clarity should be the response.

The world must convince China that the road to Taipei is lined with peril, not prizes. If Beijing acts, it faces the wrecking of its global standing. Preventing conflict is not Taiwan’s burden alone. For countries like Australia, the task is clear: help raise the costs of aggression high enough that they never have to be paid.

Nathan Attrill is a China analyst in ASPI’s Cyber, Technology and Security program. He is the editor of State of the Strait available here.  ASPI’s Defense Strategy program created Pressure Points, which is available here. This article is published courtesy of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI).

Leave a comment