Nuclear mattersHow long will the world's uranium deposits last?

Published 27 January 2009

At current consumption rates, the planet’s economically accessible uranium resources could fuel reactors for more than 200 years; further exploration and improvements in extraction technology are likely to at least double this estimate over time; if we extract uranium from seawater, and build breeder reactors, then supplies will last 30,000 to 60,000 years

As worries about the environment and the cost of oil increase, more and more nations show renewed interest in nuclear power. Nuclear power requires uranium, so the question we should ask ourselves is how long will global uranium deposits fuel the world’s nuclear reactors at present consumption rates.

Steve Fetter, dean of the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, writes in Scientific American that if the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) has accurately estimated the planet’s economically accessible uranium resources, reactors could run more than 200 years at current rates of consumption.

Most of the 2.8 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity generated worldwide from nuclear power every year is produced in light-water reactors (LWRs) using low-enriched uranium (LEU) fuel. About 10 metric tons of natural uranium go into producing a metric ton of LEU, which can then be used to generate about 400 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, so present-day reactors require about 70,000 metric tons of natural uranium a year.

Fetter writes that according to the NEA, identified uranium resources total 5.5 million metric tons, and an additional 10.5 million metric tons remain undiscovered — a roughly 230-year supply at today’s consumption rate in total. Further exploration and improvements in extraction technology are likely to at least double this estimate over time.

Using more enrichment work could reduce the uranium needs of LWRs by as much as 30 percent per metric ton of LEU. Separating plutonium and uranium from spent LEU and using them to make fresh fuel could reduce requirements by another 30 percent. Taking both steps would cut the uranium requirements of an LWR in half.

Fetter notes that two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially:

  • First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium — a 60,000-year supply at present rates.
  • Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today’s nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies (for more on breeder reactors, see HS Daily Wire of 16 January 2009 and 8 January 2008).