Illegal immigration to the U.S. dropped sharply since 2007
Pew is supported by new studies from Wayne Cornelius, co-director of the migration research center at the University of California, San Diego.
In 2009 the center found that potential migrants in Mexico were “two times less likely” to plan a move to the United States than in the pre-recession year of 2006. Among those already in the United States, more than half said they had experienced a cut in work hours, according to the field research.
Napolitano noted earlier this week that Washington has dedicated unprecedented manpower and technology to combat illegal immigration. As a result, she said, the influx of undocumented immigrants was falling.
Cornelius and others experts say, however, that the business cycle, not tighter border security, has played the biggest role in the drop in illegal entrants. “The intensity of U.S. border enforcement has continued to increase during the recession, but only gradually,” said Cornelius. “What has changed drastically is the demand for Mexican labor in the U.S. economy.”
Cornelius’s research team found no evidence that border fortifications were keeping illegal migrants out of the United States: More than nine out of ten succeed at sneaking into the country eventually, he said.
Border enforcement has created greater demand for “coyotes,” people who smuggle illegal immigrants across the border and transport them to a U.S. destination. Coyote fees have increased in tandem with bolstered enforcement.
Mexicans currently pay about $3,000 to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, compared with $700 in the early 1990s. The cost for immigrants from Central and South America can top $10,000, which they usually pay in installments after getting jobs in the United States.
“Because the return on their investment to gain access to the U.S. labor market now looks much less certain, many potential migrants are postponing journeys until the economy grows again,” said Cornelius.
Illegal immigrants represented 5 percent of the U.S. labor force last year, according to Pew. States where the housing market has been hardest hit saw the steepest decreases in their undocumented population.
The South Atlantic region, stretching from Delaware to Florida, showed significant drops. These states have been deemed new magnets for illegal immigrants, who began to bypass traditional gateway states in the 1990s, such as California and Texas, in search of opportunity further East.
In 2009, California, Texas, Florida, New York, Illinois, and New Jersey were home to 59 percent of the undocumented immigrants in the country, compared with 66 percent in 2000. There has been no net growth in the undocumented population in California for five years, according to Pew.
