Israel places troops on alert after Lebanon government falls
Lebanon plunged into crisis after Iran orders Hezbollah out of the government; Hezbollah’s move comes in anticipation of a UN tribunal’s decision to charge Hezbollah with masterminding and carrying out the 2005 assassination of Lebanon prime minister Rafik Hariri; by withdrawing its eleven cabinet ministers from the government, Hezbollah prevents the 30-member cabinet from acting on the UN tribunal’s determination (for that, the Lebanese constitution requires two-thirds cabinet majority); Iran is also acting to thwart a joint Saudi-Syrian effort to curb the growing power of Hezbollah — already the most militarily powerful group in the country; Israel’s military goes on alert
Iran’s disciplined campaign to take over Lebanon and turn it into a forward base for its regional ambition received a boost yesterday with its local agent, Hezbollah, leaving the coalition government and plunging Lebanon into a political crisis.
Hezbollah’s move, directed by Iran, is aimed not only at Israel, but also at Syria: Syria, nominally an ally of Iran, has been increasingly worried about the growing Iranian influence in Lebanon, which Syria considers to be its — Syria’s — back yard. Recent Syrian moves — a joint Syrian-Saudi effort during the summer to arrange a political settlement in Lebanon which would keep Hezbollah’s power in check; the re-opening of the American embassy in Damascus and the general improvement in U.S.-Syrian relations; continuing behind-the-scenes negotiations between Israel and Syria over a peace agreement; Syria’s efforts — yes, Syria’s efforts(!) — to moderate Turkish criticism of Israel and bring about an end to the acrimony in Israel-Turkey relationship since the deadly flotilla confrontation in May — have led Iran and Hezbollah to conclude that Syria’s support for Hezbollah was more tactical than strategic, and that under the right circumstances Syria would turn on the Shi’a group and act in concert with Israel, the United States, and Lebanese Sunni, Christian, and Druze factions to contain the growing influence of the Shi’a militia in Lebanon.
One of the first results of Hezbollah’s moves: Israeli troops in the north have gone on alert Thursday over worries that the political turmoil in Lebanon might spill over into renewed violence on their shared border.
The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group and its allies threw the already volatile Lebanon into chaos on Wednesday by pulling out of the government and causing it to collapse.
Hezbollah, which clashed with Israel in a month-long war in 2006, bolted over the government’s continued cooperation with a UN tribunal investigating the 2005 assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri.
Fox News quotes a senior officer in Israel’s northern command to say that commanders were following events in Lebanon very closely for any sign Hezbollah might try to heat up the already jittery northern border to deflect attention from the political turmoil.
Though troops have raised their level of alert, reserves have not been called up and no regular troops have been moved north from other areas, the officer said.
He spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose military tactics.
Israeli deputy prime minister Silvan Shalom on Thursday called the situation in Lebanon “very fragile.” He said the government crisis is an internal Lebanese issue, but that Israel has “to be prepared for every scenario.”
Retired general Yaakov Amidror told Army Radio the prevailing Israeli assessment is that Hezbollah has no interest at this point in a war with Israel. Both the militant group — and more important, Iran — prefer to keep Hezbollah primed to assault Israel in the event Iran is attacked, Amidror said.
In the current situation, Amidror said he would advise the military to “cast aside all these learned assessments from me and others” because the situation in Lebanon is so unsettled.
“Things are liable to slip out of the hands of decision-makers,” he said. “You never know in such a volatile and delicate situation, where everyone has a lot of weapons, a lot of resentment, a lot of frustration — you never know where it could lead.”
Israel’s war with Hezbollah in 2006 was touched off by a Hezbollah border raid. Israel invaded Lebanon and Hezbollah retaliated with nearly 4,000 rockets fired into northern Israel in fighting that killed around 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israelis, according to official counts from each side.
The Israel-Lebanon border has been largely quiet since. Hezbollah has not fired a rocket into Israel in the past four years — though Palestinian groups have — and the killing of an Israeli officer by Lebanese army fire in August was the military’s first fatality on the frontier since 2006.
Although the UN truce that ended the fighting forbade Hezbollah to rearm, the group has restocked its arsenal with even more powerful weapons it has received from Iran and Syria.
