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100th Anniversary of the Great Kanto Earthquake: Is Japan Ready for the Next Big One?
Japan is marking 100 years since a devastating earthquake triggered a widespread inferno in Kanto, a region that includes the capital, Tokyo. Most of the tens of thousands of victims perished in the fire. seismologists put the likelihood of another major quake beneath the Kanto region of Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures at 70% in the next 30 years.
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WIFIRE Lab Forms New Partnership with DHS
For the past 10 years, the WIFIRE team at the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC) at UC San Diego has been focused on meeting the growing needs of hazard monitoring, mitigation and response. Most recently, the team has partnered with DHS to integrate edge computing – a strategy emphasizing data collection and analysis at the site of or geographically near data sources. Joint effort aims to demonstrate workflows utilizing edge computing for wildfire monitoring, response and mitigation.
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U.S. Chip Sales to China to Continue, but Not Most Powerful Ones
The United States will continue to sell semi-conductor computer chips to China but not its most powerful ones “that China wants for its military,” Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said. While the United States and China maintain more than $700 billion in annual trade, escalating tensions in recent years have made it more challenging for U.S. firms to operate in China.
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How Often Are AR-Style Rifles Used for Self-Defense?
Supporters of AR-15s, often used in mass shootings and racist attacks, say they’re important for self-defense. Our analysis of Gun Violence Archive data suggests otherwise.
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The U.S. Is Spending Billions to Reduce Forest Fire Risks – We Mapped the Hot Spots Where Treatment Offers the Biggest Payoff for People and Climate
In a new study, my colleagues and I mapped out where forest treatments can do the most to simultaneously protect communities – by preventing wildfires from turning into disasters – and also protect the forests and the climate we rely on, by keeping carbon out of the atmosphere and stored in healthy soils and trees.
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What's Behind North Korea's “Nuclear Attack” Drills?
Pyongyang has carried out a series of unprecedented military drills and threatened to use nuclear weapons in an invasion of South Korea. It’s partly encouraged by closer alliances with Russia and China, experts say.
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There’s a Cop in My Pocket: Policymakers Need to Stop Advocating Surveillance by Default
All this year, U.S. leaders have attempted to pass a wave of misguided online security bills, designed to break that encryption and place Americans in a panopticon of surveillance by default. Encryption, cybersecurity, and technology policies, like the RESTRICT and EARN-IT Acts, with nonexistent tradeoffs address symptoms, not problems, and they do it badly.
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Prosecuting Extremists in the U.K.: Charging, Prosecution, and Sentencing Outcomes
There is a lack of data regarding prosecution and sentencing for terrorism and terrorism-related offences across the three legal jurisdictions of the UK (England and Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland). Does the prosecution landscape (charging, prosecution, and sentencing) vary in the UK for extremist actors depending upon the legal jurisdiction?
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The Scourge of Commercial Spyware—and How to Stop It
Years of public revelations have spotlighted a shadowy set of spyware companies selling and servicing deeply intrusive surveillance technologies that are used against journalists, activists, lawyers, politicians, diplomats, and others. Democratic nations (thus far) lag behind the United States in executing spyware-related policy commitments.
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President Biden Has Banned Some U.S. Investment in China. Here’s What to Know.
A new executive order restricts U.S. investments in sensitive technologies that Washington fears could help Beijing increase its military power. It is the latest in a raft of policies erecting barriers between the world’s two largest economies, and U.S. allies could soon adopt similar measures. The Biden administration says the restrictions are directed at protecting national security, not stifling economic competition.
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U.S.-led Deterrence in South China Sea May Push China to Become More Confrontational: Analysts
The U.S. and its allies conducted several joint military exercises near the Philippines. Analysts say Washington and its allies are showcasing an “inter-alliance cohesion” through these coordinated activities. While Washington and its allies hope to shift China’s aggressive behaviors in the South China Sea through deterrence and other means, some defense experts say Beijing may view these moves as an intensification of U.S.-led efforts to contain it.
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The Vital Role of the Civilian Community in Responding to Natural Disasters
Disaster preparedness is not about prediction. Leaders shouldn’t get caught up in trying to define what precisely we need to prepare for and when. Instead, they need to be ready for compounding national disruptions of any kind, at any time. Given the interconnectedness of our modern world, integrating broad economic, social and environmental preparedness will be better for resilience than mapping out overly detailed contingencies.
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Wildfires Are Much Worse Than a Sign of Climate Change
Summer headlines have screamed of climate extremes: Record temperatures, an ocean heat wave, and rampant wildfires. The fires present a dual problem: Not only are they a symptom of climate change — becoming bigger, hotter, and more common in regions where they can affect large population centers — but they also make the crisis worse. By burning vast layers of partially decomposed vegetable matter called peat, fires like those in Canada release even more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
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Malicious AI Arrives on the Dark Web
Nefarious non-state actors are already harnessing AI to scale up their malicious activities. Just as legitimate users have moved on from exploring ChatGPT to building similar tools, the same has happened in the shadowy world of cybercrime.
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Number of U.S. Children Killed by Guns Hit Record High in 2021
Firearm death rates among children and teens rose almost 9% from 2020 to 2021, while disparities worsened, according to a new study. The increasing rates meant firearms remained the leading cause of death for youths. In 2021, 4,752 children and teens were killed by firearms, a rate of almost 6 per 100,000 youths. The rate is up 9% from 2020 and 42% from 2018.
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More headlines
The long view
Tantalizing Method to Study Cyberdeterrence
Tantalus is unlike most war games because it is experimental instead of experiential — the immersive game differs by overlapping scientific rigor and quantitative assessment methods with the experimental sciences, and experimental war gaming provides insightful data for real-world cyberattacks.
Using Drone Swarms to Fight Forest Fires
Forest fires are becoming increasingly catastrophic across the world, accelerated by climate change. Researchers are using multiple swarms of drones to tackle natural disasters like forest fires.
Testing Cutting-Edge Counter-Drone Technology
Drones have many positive applications, bad actors can use them for nefarious purposes. Two recent field demonstrations brought government, academia, and industry together to evaluate innovative counter-unmanned aircraft systems.
European Arms Imports Nearly Double, U.S. and French Exports Rise, and Russian Exports Fall Sharply
States in Europe almost doubled their imports of major arms (+94 per cent) between 2014–18 and 2019–23. The United States increased its arms exports by 17 per cent between 2014–18 and 2019–23, while Russia’s arms exports halved. Russia was for the first time the third largest arms exporter, falling just behind France.
How Climate Change Will Affect Conflict and U.S. Military Operations
“People talk about climate change as a threat multiplier,” said Karen Sudkamp, an associate director of the Infrastructure, Immigration, and Security Operations Program within the RAND Homeland Security Research Division. “But at what point do we need to start talking about the threat multiplier actually becoming a significant threat all its own?”
The Tech Apocalypse Panic is Driven by AI Boosters, Military Tacticians, and Movies
From popular films like a War Games or The Terminator to a U.S. State Department-commissioned report on the security risk of weaponized AI, there has been a tremendous amount of hand wringing and nervousness about how so-called artificial intelligence might end up destroying the world. There is one easy way to avoid a lot of this and prevent a self-inflicted doomsday: don’t give computers the capability to launch devastating weapons.