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The October 7 Attack: An Assessment of the Intelligence Failings
Hours after the Hamas attack of October 7 began, they were widely attributed to an apparent Israeli intelligence failure, with pundits pointing to several possible sources, including a misunderstanding of Hamas’ intentions, cognitive biases, and an overreliance on the country’s technological superiority. Building on previous literature on surprise attacks and intelligence failures to examine both Israel’s political level and intelligence level prior to October 7, 2023, the findings suggest that the attack was likely not the result of a single glaring failure but rather the accumulation of several problems at both levels.
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NNSA Completes and Diamond-Stamps First Plutonium Pit for W87-1 Warhead
During the Cold War, the United States could manufacture hundreds of plutonium pits per year. Pit production ceased in 1989, and NNSA continues to recapitalize production capabilities that atrophied in the post-Cold War era.
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Al Qusayr Destroyed
For years, the Institute for Science and International Security has been following and reporting on the Al Qusayr Underground Facility in Syria, close to the Lebanon border, where construction started as early as 2009 and continued until recently. A few days ago, the site was destroyed in an Israeli attack.
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Colorado Program for Reporting Student Threats Sees Spike in Reports
Safe2Tell saw a 74% increase in reports for September 2024 compared to September 2023, according the Colorado Attorney General’s office. September 2024 saw 4,729 reports, setting a new record for the state.
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Each Year, Landmines Kill Residents of War-Torn Countries. This Innovative Tool Could Save Lives.
Landmines and other explosive remnants of war killed or wounded at least 4,710 people in at least 49 countries in 2022, according to a recent report from the International Campaign to Ban Landmines. Ukraine reported 608 casualties. Afghanistan documented 303. Colombia recorded 145.
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Crime Is Down, FBI Says, but Politicians Still Choose Statistics to Fit Their Narratives
Violent crime and property crime in the United States dropped in 2023, continuing a downward trend following higher rates of crime during the pandemic. Murder in the United States fell nearly 12% in 2023 compared with 2022.
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In 2019, Congress Finally Funded Gun Violence Research. Here’s How It’s Changed the Field
A Trace analysis of federal data found that the amount of money going to gun violence studies has soared since lawmakers lifted a de facto federal funding ban.
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Taiwan Mobilizes Civil society to Bolster Civil Defense
Most of the island’s people are remarkably ill-prepared for an attack from an increasingly aggressive China. For example, few Taiwanese would know what to do if bombs began shattering nearby streets. Taiwan has taken a big step towards bolstering civil defense, marshalling a range of resources and know-how across society.
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Weak "Guardrails" on Police Face Recognition Use Make Things Worse
Police use of face recognition technology (FRT) poses a particularly massive risk to our civil liberties, particularly for Black men and women and other marginalized communities.
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The Weapons Which Killed Nasrallah
The 83 tons of explosives which were dropped on 28 September 2024 in the heart of the Dahiya district in Beirut destroyed a deeply dug network of tunnels and bunkers which served as Hezbollah headquarters, killing Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and about two dozen of his senior aids. The bombs were BLU-109 type bombs, which were fitted with a JDAM system to turn each “stupid” gravity bomb into a precision-munition smart bomb.
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The Nasrallah Killing Is a Crushing Blow to Hezbollah
Hezbollah leader Sayed Hassan Nasrallah possessed a rare set of abilities that made the group a formidable foe to Israel and a power broker in Lebanon. His killing by Israel sharply weakens the threat posed by the group and its patron, Iran.
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The Unthinkable: What Nuclear War in Europe Would Look Like
If Russia were to launch a massive nuclear strike on Ukraine or Western Europe, there is not much the continent could do to stop it. NATO’s internal calculations reportedly predict that in the event of an all-out attack from Russia, the military bloc has “less than 5 percent” of the air defenses needed.
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The World Isn’t Taking Putin’s Nuclear Threats Seriously – the History of Propaganda Suggests I Should
Vladimir Putin has spoken several times about using nuclear weapons since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. To believe that Putin is not serious about using nuclear weapons is a dangerous assumption to make.
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Remotely Exploding Pagers Highlight Supply Chain Risks
The attacks against Hezbollah using weaponized pagers and walkie talkies serve as a stark reminder of the dangers of compromised supply chains and why Australia must secure its own against the threats from China.
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Emergency Management Puts Itself to the Test
Each year, Sandia holds a comprehensive exercise to evaluate the Labs’ ability to respond to a wide range of emergencies. These exercises play a pivotal role in ensuring protection of Sandia’s national security mission.
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The long view
Factories First: Winning the Drone War Before It Starts
Wars are won by factories before they are won on the battlefield,Martin C. Feldmann writes, noting that the United States lacks the manufacturing depth for the coming drone age. Rectifying this situation “will take far more than procurement tweaks,” Feldmann writes. “It demands a national-level, wartime-scale industrial mobilization.”
How Male Grievance Fuels Radicalization and Extremist Violence
Social extremism is evolving in reach and form. While traditional racial supremacy ideologies remain, contemporary movements are now often fueled by something more personal and emotionally resonant: male grievance.
The Surprising Reasons Floods and Other Disasters Are Deadlier at Night
It’s not just that it’s dark and people are asleep. Urban sprawl, confirmation bias, and other factors can play a role.
Why Flash Flood Warnings Will Continue to Go Unheeded
Experts say local education and community support are key to conveying risk.