• Global Annual Nuclear Weapons Spending in 2023: $91.4 Billion

    In 2023, the nine nuclear-armed states spent a combined total of $91,393,404,739 on their arsenals – equivalent to $2,898 a second. A new report shows that $10.7 billion more was spent on nuclear weapons in 2023 than in 2022.

  • Modern-Day Outlaws, “Sovereign Citizens” Threaten the Rule of Law

    By Christine Sarteschi

    The FBI considers sovereign citizens a domestic terrorism threat. My research into sovereign citizens has found they have long been active in the U.S. and other countries. At the core of their beliefs is the denial of the government’s legitimacy. They commonly do not register their vehicles, acquire driver’s licenses or car insurance, or pay taxes. And they pose a significant threat to the public.

  • Fact Check: Fake Footage of Russian Warships in Cuba

    By Monir Ghaedi

    The arrival of Russian navy ships, some carrying advanced weapons, off the coast of Havana has given rise to online disinformation. Some analysts breathlessly warned of a new Cuban Missile Crisis. But the story was fake news, using old footage and clever editing.

  • 'Hybrid’ Disaster Response Shows How Localization Saves Lives

    By Josh Stowe

    The earthquake that struck southwest Haiti in August 2021 killed thousands of people and left more than half a million seeking help. New research by a University of Notre Dame expert finds that the assessment of this disaster can serve as a model for evaluating future disasters and making life-saving improvements.

  • Cyber Conflict and Subversion in the Russia-Ukraine War

    The Russia-Ukraine war is the first case of cyber conflict in a large-scale military conflict involving a major power. Over the years, Russia-sponsored hacking groups have adapted their tradecraft to the war setting. “Contrary to cyberwar fears, most cyber operations remained strategically inconsequential,” Lennart Maschmeyer writes. “The case of Ukraine illustrates not only the limitations of cyber operations but also the relative superiority of old-school means of subversion.”

  • Fool’s Gold: Overhyped Tech Startups Distract from Military Innovation

    By Joseph Buccino

    Technology startups almost never live up to all the hype they generate. Much of this innovation is fool’s gold. Often, these solutions are not developed beyond an initial concept. It’s a missed opportunity for the U.S. military. Startup companies often present the Pentagon with more cost-effective, swift, and adaptable solutions compared to the weapons systems typically provided by the handful of major contractors the Pentagon usually turns to.

  • Analysis of the IAEA’s Iran NPT Safeguards Report - May 2024

    By David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Andrea Stricker

    For the second time in its quarterly safeguards reports on Iran’s compliance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has drawn attention Iran’s current ability to make nuclear weapons. Without strong and decisive action y the IAEA, Iranwill succeed in steadily augmenting its nuclear program penalty-free, enabling it to build a nuclear weapon more quickly than Western powers could detect and stop.

  • Beyond The ‘Incel Attacker’: Media Reporting on Cases of Misogynist Violence

    By Allysa Czerwinsky

    Incidents of misogynist violence are often tenuously linked to the wider incel community in media reports, most notably in the immediate aftermath of attacks carried out by lone male perpetrators. But it is important clearly to separate cases of misogynist violence from the wider incel community.  and offers recommendations to journalists who report on such violence.

  • China’s Control and Coercion in Critical Minerals

    By Ian Satchwell

    Markets for critical minerals are no longer shaping up to be the next components of the global economy to be dominated by China. They already are. While Western nations were sleeping, China built vertically integrated supply chains for several critical minerals vital to the energy transition and high technology applications, including defense equipment.

  • Autonomous Vessels Need to Be More Afraid of Dying

    By Live Oftedahl

    Could the Helge Ingstad maritime accident have been avoided if the Royal Norwegian Navy’s warships had been equipped with artificial intelligence?

  • Rising Threats to Public Officials: A Review of 10 Years of Federal Data

    By Pete Simi, Gina Ligon, Seamus Hughes, Natalie Standridge

    A review of federal charges for the past decade highlights that the number of threats to public officials is growing. While 2013-2016 had an average of 38 federal charges per year, that number sharply increased to an average of 62 charges per year between 2017-2022. Across the time series, ideologically motivated threats, on average, accounted for almost half of the cases, and the portion steadily increased year over year. A preliminary review of cases from 2023 and 2024 shows that the number of federal prosecutions is on pace to hit new record highs. The rising threat level may produce significant consequences for the U.S. democratic system of governance.

  • The U.S. and China Need an AI Incidents Hotline

    The United States and China have been talking about AI security, but Christian Ruhl writes that this is not enough. Given the rapid rate of progress of frontier AI research, “diplomats will need to be quick to come up with risk-mitigation measures if they want to be more than a talk shop. Moreover, these measures will need to be ‘future proof,’ meaning they can’t focus solely on current capabilities that will remain relevant for no more than a few months; risk mitigation needs to be flexible to respond to ever-more capable models.”

  • Dependable AI for National Security Applications

    AI is rapidly becoming one of the most important assets in global competition, including AI-assisted autonomy and decision-making in battlefield applications. But today’s AI models are vulnerable to novel cyberattacks and could be exploited by adversaries, and are not sufficiently robust and dependable to orchestrate and execute inherently human-centric, mission-critical decisions.

  • U.S., Allies Warn China Aggressively ‘Headhunting’ Western Fighter Pilots

    By Jeff Seldin

    China’s military appears to be intensifying its efforts to recruit current and former Western fighter pilots, employing new and more intricate tactics to snare Western expertise. The end goal, according to the U.S. and its allies, is for China to better train its own fighter pilots while gaining insights into how Western air forces operate, something that could erode Western advantages or even give Chinese fighter jets a boost in case of a conflict.

  • China Turns to Private Hackers as It Cracks Down on Online Activists on Tiananmen Square Anniversary

    By Christopher K. Tong

    Chinese authorities restrict the flow of information online by banning search terms, scanning social media for subversive messages and blocking access to foreign media and applications that may host censored content. Control of online activity is particularly stringent around the anniversary of the protests at Tiananmen Square in 1989 that ended with a bloody crackdown on demonstrators by troops on June 4 of that year.