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The October 7 Attack: An Assessment of the Intelligence Failings
Hours after the Hamas attack of October 7 began, they were widely attributed to an apparent Israeli intelligence failure, with pundits pointing to several possible sources, including a misunderstanding of Hamas’ intentions, cognitive biases, and an overreliance on the country’s technological superiority. Building on previous literature on surprise attacks and intelligence failures to examine both Israel’s political level and intelligence level prior to October 7, 2023, the findings suggest that the attack was likely not the result of a single glaring failure but rather the accumulation of several problems at both levels.
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Election Security: When to Worry, When to Not
Everyone wants an election that is secure and reliable and that will ensure that the voters’ actual choices are reflected in the results. At the same time, not every problem in voting technology or systems is worth pulling the fire alarm —we have to look at the bigger story and context. And we have to stand down when our worst fears turn out to be unfounded.
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How One Swing-State County Has Escaped Election Conspiracies
Mercer County, Pennsylvania has avoided the rancor and abuse that have plagued other parts of Pennsylvania. Local Democratic and Republican leaders both vouch for the integrity of the county’s voting system.
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$100 Million to Accelerate R&D and AI Technologies for Sustainable Semiconductor Materials
The U.S. Commerce Deprtment ssued a Notice of Intent (NOI) to announce an open competition demonstrating how AI can assist in developing new sustainable semiconductor materials and processes that meet industry needs and can be designed and adopted within five years.
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The CHIPS Act: How U.S. Microchip Factories Could Reshape the Economy
The CHIPS and Science Act seeks to revitalize the U.S. semiconductor industry amid growing fears of a China-Taiwan conflict. Where is the money going, and how is the effort playing out?
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U.S. Warns Voters of Disinformation Deluge
American voters are likely about to be swamped by a flood of misinformation and influence campaigns engineered by U.S. adversaries aiming, according to senior U.S. intelligence officials, to sway the results of the upcoming presidential election and cast doubt on the process itself.
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How Foreign Operations Are Manipulating Social Media to Influence Your Views
Foreign influence campaigns, or information operations, have been widespread in the run-up to the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Influence campaigns aim to shift public opinion, push false narratives or change behaviors among a target population. Russia, China, Iran, Israel and other nations have run these campaigns by exploiting social bots, influencers, media companies and generative AI.
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Intimidation, Harassment and Support for Hamas Mark Widespread Anti-Israel Student Protests on 10/7 Anniversary
On the grim anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023 terror massacre in southern Israel, when thousands of terrorists killed some 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages, anti-Israel student group demonstrations on U.S. campuses again featured extreme pro-terror messages that glorified the attack and sought to disrupt campus life. Some events were marked by vandalism, intimidation and harassment.
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One Year After the October 7 Attacks: The Impact on Four Fronts
The turbulent year since Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel draws to a close, marked by a sharp escalation in conflict between Israel and Iran and its proxies. Four CFR experts assess the changes since the attacks.
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A Year to the Start of the Latest Round of the Israel-Hamas Conflict: Q&A with RAND Experts
The lates round of war between Israel and Hamas has highlighted a complex web of strategic, geopolitical, and humanitarian challenges. In this Q&A, RAND experts delve into the regional and global implications of the conflict, the factors that led up to it, and where it could be headed.
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A Year of Devastation: With Hope and Trust Shattered, What Can Bring an End to the Violence in Israel-Palestine?
Hate comes easily in the face of injustices. It is hard to empathize with the misfortunes of “others” who may or may not have brought their miseries upon themselves. Those who have been severely aggrieved by this human tragedy may struggle to apply the same yardstick to others, certainly in the near future. But the rest of us can, and should, do better.
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Election Skeptics Are Running Some County Election Boards in Georgia. A New Rule Could Allow Them to Exclude Decisive Votes.
An examination of a new election rule in Georgia suggests that local officials in just a handful of rural counties could exclude enough votes to affect the outcome of the 2024 presidential race.
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Hurricane Helene Could Cost $200 Billion. Nobody Knows Where the Money Will Come From.
Even as the full scale of devastation in the mountainous regions of North Carolina and Tennessee remains unknown, it’s clear that Hurricane Helene is one of the deadliest and most destructive storms in recent U.S. history. Almost none of the storm’s devastation will be paid out by insurance.
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Crime Is Down, FBI Says, but Politicians Still Choose Statistics to Fit Their Narratives
Violent crime and property crime in the United States dropped in 2023, continuing a downward trend following higher rates of crime during the pandemic. Murder in the United States fell nearly 12% in 2023 compared with 2022.
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In 2019, Congress Finally Funded Gun Violence Research. Here’s How It’s Changed the Field
A Trace analysis of federal data found that the amount of money going to gun violence studies has soared since lawmakers lifted a de facto federal funding ban.
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The long view
Kinetic Operations Bring Authoritarian Violence to Democratic Streets
Foreign interference in democracies has a multifaceted toolkit. In addition to information manipulation, the tactical tools authoritarian actors use to undermine democracy include cyber operations, economic coercion, malign finance, and civil society subversion.
Patriots’ Day: How Far-Right Groups Hijack History and Patriotic Symbols to Advance Their Cause, According to an Expert on Extremism
Extremist groups have attempted to change the meaning of freedom and liberty embedded in Patriots’ Day — a commemoration of the battles of Lexington and Concord – to serve their far-right rhetoric, recruitment, and radicalization. Understanding how patriotic symbols can be exploited offers important insights into how historical narratives may be manipulated, potentially leading to harmful consequences in American society.
Trump Aims to Shut Down State Climate Policies
President Donald Trump has launched an all-out legal attack on states’ authority to set climate change policy. Climate-focused state leaders say his administration has no legal basis to unravel their efforts.
Vaccine Integrity Project Says New FDA Rules on COVID-19 Vaccines Show Lack of Consensus, Clarity
Sidestepping both the FDA’s own Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee and the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), two Trump-appointed FDA leaders penned an opinion piece in the New England Journal of Medicine to announce new, more restrictive, COVID-19 vaccine recommendations. Critics say that not seeking broad input into the new policy, which would help FDA to understand its implications, feasibility, and the potential for unintended consequences, amounts to policy by proclamation.
Twenty-One Things That Are True in Los Angeles
To understand the dangers inherent in deploying the California National Guard – over the strenuous objections of the California governor – and active-duty Marines to deal with anti-ICE protesters, we should remind ourselves of a few elementary truths, writes Benjamin Wittes. Among these truths: “Not all lawful exercises of authority are wise, prudent, or smart”; “Not all crimes require a federal response”; “Avoiding tragic and unnecessary confrontations is generally desirable”; and “It is thus unwise, imprudent, and stupid to take actions for performative reasons that one might reasonably anticipate would increase the risks of such confrontations.”
Luigi Mangione and the Making of a ‘Terrorist’
Discretion is crucial to the American tradition of criminal law, Jacob Ware and Ania Zolyniak write, noting that “lawmakers enact broader statutes to empower prosecutors to pursue justice while entrusting that they will stay within the confines of their authority and screen out the inevitable “absurd” cases that may arise.” Discretion is also vital to maintaining the legitimacy of the legal system. In the prosecution’s case against Luigi Mangione, they charge, “That discretion was abused.”