• President Biden Has Banned Some U.S. Investment in China. Here’s What to Know.

    By Noah Berman

    A new executive order restricts U.S. investments in sensitive technologies that Washington fears could help Beijing increase its military power. It is the latest in a raft of policies erecting barriers between the world’s two largest economies, and U.S. allies could soon adopt similar measures. The  Biden administration says the restrictions are directed at protecting national security, not stifling economic competition.

  • U.S.-led Deterrence in South China Sea May Push China to Become More Confrontational: Analysts

    By William Yang

    The U.S. and its allies conducted several joint military exercises near the Philippines. Analysts say Washington and its allies are showcasing an “inter-alliance cohesion” through these coordinated activities. While Washington and its allies hope to shift China’s aggressive behaviors in the South China Sea through deterrence and other means, some defense experts say Beijing may view these moves as an intensification of U.S.-led efforts to contain it.

  • AI-Controlled Weapons Should Be Banned from the Battlefield: Experts

    AI expert says autonomous systems being used in the current Ukraine conflict need to be prohibited in the same way as chemical and biological weapons. “I’m quite hopeful that we will, at some point, decide that autonomous weapons also be added to the lists of terrible ways to fight war like chemical weapons, like biological weapons. What worries me is that in most cases, we’ve only regulated various technologies for fighting after we’ve seen the horrors of them being misused in battle,” he says.

  • As Competition with China Heats Up, Japan Turns to Africa for Critical Minerals

    By Julian Ryall

    Demand for such minerals is expected to grow sharply in the coming years. There are, however, supply constraints, as only a limited number of countries produce them. Tokyo has signed agreements with a number of African countries as competition with China for key raw materials and minerals heats up.

  • New Method Helps Predict the Spread of Armed Conflicts

    Around the world, political violence increased by 27 percent last year, affecting 1.7 billion people. Some armed conflicts occur between states, but there are many more that take place within the borders of a single state. To better understand how violent events spread, a new statistical model identifies links between battles in Africa, but the model can be applied to other armed conflicts.

  • De-Risking Authoritarian AI

    By Simeon Gilding

    You may not be interested in artificial intelligence, but it is interested in you. AI-enabled systems make many invisible decisions affecting our health, safety and wealth. They shape what we see, think, feel and choose, they calculate our access to financial benefits as well as our transgressions. In a technology-enabled world, opportunities for remote, large-scale foreign interference, espionage and sabotage —via internet and software updates—exist at a ‘scale and reach that is unprecedented’.

  • Regulate National Security AI Like Covert Action

    Congress is trying to roll up its sleeves and get to work on artificial intelligence (AI) regulation. Ashley Deeks writes that only a few of these proposed provisions, however, implicate national security-related AI, and none create any kind of framework regulation for such tools. She proposes crafting a law similar to the War Powers Act to govern U.S. intelligence and military agencies use of AI tools.

  • U.S. Voluntary AI Code of Conduct and Implications for Military Use

    By Akshat Upadhyay

    Seven technology companies including Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic and Meta, with major artificial intelligence (AI) products made voluntary commitments regarding the regulation of AI. These are non-binding, unenforceable and voluntary, but they may form the basis for a future Executive Order on AI, which will become critical given the increasing military use of AI.

  • Roles and Implications of AI in the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

    By Sam Bendett

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) is emerging as a significant asset in the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Specifically, it has become a key data analysis tool that helps operators and warfighters make sense of the growing volume and amount of information generated by numerous systems, weapons and soldiers in the field.

  • Proposed U.S. Missile Defense Plan a Source of White House, Congress Disagreement

    By Carla Babb

    The $874 billion budget passed by the House on Friday calls for the military to maintain a “credible nuclear capability” to deter adversaries, while developing and deploying layered defense systems that can defeat complex missile threats “in all phases of flight.” The White House argues that this contradicts the balance-of-terror on which the nuclear relations of the great powers was based since the 1960s, and which is embedded in nuclear arms control treaties.

  • The Uncertain Future of the U.S. Military’s All-Volunteer Force

    By Erin Staine-Pyne

    This year marks the fiftieth anniversary of U.S. all-volunteer military force. It also coincides with one of the worst recruiting years for the U.S. military since 1973. The U.S military has a manpower problem and it’s not just due to today’s recruiting shortages. It’s time for a comprehensive plan to solve the personnel shortfalls.

  • Satellite Security Lags Decades Behind the State of the Art

    Thousands of satellites are currently orbiting the Earth, and there will be many more in the future. Researchers analyzed three current low-earth orbit satellites and found that, from a technical point of view, hardly any modern security concepts were implemented. Various security mechanisms that are standard in modern mobile phones and laptops were not to be found.

  • Preparing for Great Power Conflict

    How has the military experience gained by both the U.S. military and the PLA since 2001 shaped the way both militaries train? What effect do these experiences and training trends have on readiness for major power conflict?

  • What Are the Odds of a Truly Catastrophic, Even Extinction-Causing, Disaster?

    The Forecastong Research Institute (FRI) brought together forecasters from two groups with distinctive claims to knowledge about humanity’s future — experts in various domains relevant to existential risk, and “superforecasters” with a track record of predictive accuracy over short time horizons. FRI asked tournament participants to predict the likelihood of global risks related to nuclear weapon use, biorisks, and AI, along with dozens of other related, shorter-run forecasts.

  • China’s Ties to Cuba and Growing Presence in Latin America Raise Security Concerns in Washington, Even as Leaders Try to Ease Tensions

    By Leland Lazarus

    There have been news reports that China made deals with Cuba to set up an electronic eavesdropping station on the island nation, just 90 miles from Florida and build a military training facility there. The China-Cuba connection is just one example of how the Chinese government and Chinese companies have been expanding their influence on America’s doorstep for decades. Not just through trade and investment, but also through espionage, military, law enforcement and drug activities. Such activities will greatly affect U.S. national security for years to come.