• What Are the Odds of a Truly Catastrophic, Even Extinction-Causing, Disaster?

    The Forecastong Research Institute (FRI) brought together forecasters from two groups with distinctive claims to knowledge about humanity’s future — experts in various domains relevant to existential risk, and “superforecasters” with a track record of predictive accuracy over short time horizons. FRI asked tournament participants to predict the likelihood of global risks related to nuclear weapon use, biorisks, and AI, along with dozens of other related, shorter-run forecasts.

  • China’s Ties to Cuba and Growing Presence in Latin America Raise Security Concerns in Washington, Even as Leaders Try to Ease Tensions

    There have been news reports that China made deals with Cuba to set up an electronic eavesdropping station on the island nation, just 90 miles from Florida and build a military training facility there. The China-Cuba connection is just one example of how the Chinese government and Chinese companies have been expanding their influence on America’s doorstep for decades. Not just through trade and investment, but also through espionage, military, law enforcement and drug activities. Such activities will greatly affect U.S. national security for years to come.

  • Our Biggest Errors in Afghanistan and What We Should Learn from Them

    However dramatic it appeared, the collapse of the Afghan government and military was not surprising. The seeds of defeat were planted long before President Joe Biden ordered the withdrawal. The American project was not based in a clear understanding of the realities of Afghanistan. Well-meaning Americans believed that they could persuade, cajole, or force a project that much of the population did not actively embrace or participate in. A chain of discrete policy errors flowed from this basic failure to adequately understand the country.

  • Global Conflicts: Death Toll at Highest in 21st Century

    Conflict deaths are higher than they have ever been this century with over 238,000 people killed in conflicts last year. The number of conflict deaths almost doubled in 2022 compared to the previous year. And war caused a 13% loss of global GDP, according to the Global Peace Index.

  • Why Norms Matter More Than Ever for Space Deterrence and Defense

    As the uses of space grow in significance, so too has the question of how to keep space systems safe and secure. Robin Dickey writes that one of the potential answers to that question is to fill in gaps in norms of responsible behavior for space. “What may seem like a relatively niche topic actually supports a broad swath of U.S. strategic objectives and has become a central line of effort in protecting national security interests in the space domain,” he writes.

  • Boosting Supply Chains by Recovering Valuable Materials from Water

    Promoting national security and economic competitiveness will require America’s researchers to find new ways to obtain the materials that we need for many technologies. Traditional mining is fraught with challenges, while water, from the oceans to geothermal brines, is an underexplored resource for providing various materials.

  • Research Agenda Prepares for the Future of Science and Technology

    DHS Science and Technology Directorate (S&T) works to prepare DHS for  the future of science and technology. The requires remaining aware (and ahead) of emerging science and technology threats along with harnessing the latest advancements in science and technology as cutting-edge solutions for homeland security operational challenges.

  • The Microchip Industry Would Implode if China Invaded Taiwan, and It Would Affect Everyone

    Taiwan plays a critical role in the conflict between the US and China over computer chips. Taiwan has a huge share of the global semiconductor industry, but is also the focus of tensions between Beijing and Washington over its political status. If China invaded Taiwan, the global semiconductor industry would freeze, inflation would spiral further upwards, the post-COVID recovery would be reversed, and many of the tools we rely on would disappear from our shops for years.

  • U.S. Former General: Russia Benefits from Dam Blast, Putin 'Likely' to Use Nuclear Weapons Rather Than Lose in Ukraine

    “I’m not the first to warn [Putin’s] threats [to use nuclear weapons] are serious. Many people say that his threats are serious, but then they quickly say, “However, they are not likely. I’m one of the few people who has said that these threats are not only serious but they’re likely to happen. That makes a threat urgent — something which others are not saying. If these threats are recognized as urgent, then the governments will do something about it; if they’re not urgent, or if they’re not likely, then the governments have many other things on their plate that they want to take care of that are urgent”: Brigadier General (Ret.) Kevin Ryan.

  • China Extends Its Lead Over U.S. in Key Technologies

    Western democracies are losing the global technological competition, including the race for scientific and research breakthroughs, and the ability to retain global talent—crucial ingredients that underpin the development and control of the world’s most important technologies, including those that don’t yet exist.A new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) finds that China’s global lead extends to 37 out of 44 technologies that ASPI is now tracking. These findings should be a wake-up call for democratic nations, who must rapidly pursue a strategic critical technology step-up.

  • Needed: Ground Rules for the Age of AI Warfare

    The time has arrived form an international agreement on autonomous weapons. Lauren Kahn writes in Foreign Affairs that AI is at an inflection point: the technology is maturing and is increasingly suitable for military use, while the exact outlines of future AI military systems, and the degree of disruption they will cause, remain uncertain and, hence, can be, at least somewhat, shaped.

  • A Strait Too Far: How a Deliberate Campaigning Approach in the Pacific Can Make Beijing Think Twice

    Military planners say that March through May is one of two ideal windows of meteorological opportunity for cross-strait amphibious operations, with the other occurring in September and October.Benjamin Van Horrick writes that “for the U.S. joint force, the spring campaigning season in the Indo-Pacific is thus essential for strengthening regional partnerships, increasing multinational lethality, and instilling doubt in Chinese leaders’ minds about whether they could successfully invade Taiwan.”Van Horrick adds: “All of this means that with the right preparations, Washington does not have to be playing an away game.”

  • Taiwan: China Sees Invasion of Ukraine as “Test Case” for Its Own Designs

    For Taiwan, which has been under the threat of an invasion by China for decades, the fate of Ukraine is closely linked with its own. China views the war in Ukraine as a “test case” for its own designs on Taiwan, according to Taiwanese Deputy Foreign Minister Roy Chun Lee.

  • U.S. Reliance on Chinese Drones: A Sector for the Next CHIPS Act?

    More and more lawmakers from both parties are beginning to pay attention to the issue of drones and national security. Different bills seek to regulate federal agency procurement and use of certain foreign-made unmanned aircraft systems (UASs), or drones. Annie I. Antón and Olivia C. Mauger write that “Building on the bipartisan consensus to enact the 2022 Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors and Science (CHIPS) Act, there is a compelling case that UASs should be a next sector for similar action.”

  • What the Iraq War Can Teach the U.S. About Avoiding a Quagmire in Ukraine – 3 Key Lessons

    The Iraq and Ukraine wars have notable differences from a U.S. foreign policy perspective – chiefly, thousands of American soldiers died fighting in Iraq, while the U.S. does not have any ground troops in Ukraine. But assessing the Iraq War, and its long aftermath, can still help articulate concerns about the United States’ getting involved in intense violence in another faraway place.