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TerrorismIS Returnees Should Be Charged with War Crimes: EU Agency
More than 13,000 citizens of European countries traveled to Syria and Iraq to join, fight, or work with ISIS. In addition to former fighters, this figure includes women and children. A new report from an EU-backed genocide investigation body says that adding war crimes and genocide to terrorism charges for IS fighters returning to the EU will lead to tougher sentences and “more justice” for victims.
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TerrorismHow the Coronavirus Increases Terrorism Threats in the Developing World
As the coronavirus reaches developing countries in Africa and Asia, the pandemic will have effects beyond public health and economic activity. As the disease wreaks its havoc in areas poorly equipped to handle its spread, terrorism likely will increase there as well.
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CrimeAs Crime Dips Worldwide, Agile Syndicates Adapt to Pandemic
Countries around the world are reporting a dip in criminal activity. Due to stay-at-home orders and fewer opportunities for crime, there has been a noticeable decline in burglary, assault, murder, robbery and grand larceny. But law enforcement officials and analysts say a second look reveals a more complicated and disturbing picture. Cybercrime has exploded, with mounting reports of an increase in ransomware attacks. Headline crime may have dropped, and the statistics may have improved, but analysts say that as the pandemic reorders geopolitics and economics, it is doing the same in the world of crime.
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Countering counterfeitsHigh-Security Identification that Cannot Be Counterfeited
High-security identification should be exceptionally resistant to counterfeiting. Unfortunately, identity thieves eventually learn how to duplicate even highly complex patterns. The only way to permanently defeat identity thieves is to create a pattern that is impossible to duplicate.
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ResilienceNeeded: A New Approach to U.K. Resilience
Experts are calling for a new approach to U.K. resilience. They believe that as well as lessons learnt from the response to COVID-19 there is a much wider lesson to be learnt about how the U.K. identifies, prepares and responds to threats and risks, such as to our safety, our national security and from climate change.
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ResilienceHurricanes: From Resilience to Adaptation
Natural disasters are getting worse. According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration the years 2016, 2017 and 2018 have been historic: in each of those years, the average number of disasters costing at least $1 billion was more than double the long-term average. As the number and cost of disasters continue to increase, communities are looking for ways to adapt and become more resilient.
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Water securityOilfield Water Can Safely Be Reused for Irrigation in California
Reusing low-saline oilfield water mixed with surface water to irrigate farms in the Cawelo Water District of California does not pose major health risks, as some opponents of the practice have feared, a new study finds.
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ArgumentHow Conspiracy Theories Hurt Vaccination Numbers
Near the end of 2018, data released by the CDC showed that a small, but growing, number of children in the United States were not getting recommended vaccinations. One in 77 infants born in 2017 did not receive any vaccination. Michael Stein and Sandro Galea write this is more than four times as many unvaccinated children as the United States had at the turn of the century. “Some of this may be due to lack of access to vaccines; populations without insurance, and those living in rural areas have greater rates of nonvaccination,” they write. “But part of it is also likely due to the rise of conspiracy theories and the willful dismissal of scientific evidence when it comes to vaccines.”
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PerspectiveAmerica’s Never-Ending Battle Against Flesh-Eating Worms
Screwworms once killed millions of dollars’ worth of cattle a year in the southern U.S. Their range extended from Florida to California, and they infected any living, warm-blooded animal: not only cattle but deer, squirrels, pets, and even the occasional human. Sarah Zhang writes that to get the screwworms out, the USDA to this day maintains an international screwworm barrier along the Panama-Colombia border. The barrier is an invisible one, and it is kept in place by constant human effort. “The insect is relentless in its search for hosts. Those who fight it must be relentless too.”
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Our picks5G Conspiracy Theories Threats | Hacker Saves the Internet | Shortest War Ever (It Lasted Less than 40 minutes), and more
· The DHS Prepares for Attacks Fueled by 5G Conspiracy Theories
· More Than 25% of All Americans and 44% of Republicans Believe Conspiracy Theory that Bill Gates Is Plotting to Use a COVID-19 Vaccine to Implant Microchips in People, Survey Finds
· Italy’s New COVID-19 App Tracks Contacts and Protects Privacy
· Qatar Tracing App Flaw Exposed 1 mn Users’ Data: Amnesty
· Call by Global Leaders: Work Together Now to Stop Cyberattacks on the Healthcare Sector ICRC)
· COVID-19 Adds a New Dimension to an Undeclared Third World War
· The Confessions of Marcus Hutchins, the Hacker Who Saved the Internet
· Will the Pandemic Lead to Outbreaks of Other Maladies?
· Inside the Sisterhood Springing Jihadis From Jail
· Shortest War Ever? The Anglo-Zanzibar War Over in Less Than 40 Minutes
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HydroxychloroquineNo Evidence of Benefit for Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine in COVID-19 Patients, Study Finds
A large observational study suggests that treatment with the antimalarial drug chloroquine or its analogue hydroxychloroquine (taken with or without the antibiotics azithromycin or clarithromycin) offers no benefit for patients with COVID-19. Prof. Dr. Mandeep R. Mehra, lead author of the study, which was published in The Lancet, said: “This is the first large scale study to find statistically robust evidence that treatment with chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine does not benefit patients with COVID-19. Instead, our findings suggest it may be associated with an increased risk of serious heart problems and increased risk of death.” Writing in a linked The Lancet “Comment” article, Professor Christian Funck-Brentano, of the Sorbonne University in Paris (who was not involved in the study), said: “This well-conducted observational study adds to preliminary reports suggesting that chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, alone or with azithromycin is not useful and may be harmful in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.”
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RemdesivirFederal Scientists Finally Publish Remdesivir Data
A clinical trial led to the authorization of the only drug shown to work in Covid-19 patients. But until now, few experts had seen the numbers. Gina Kolata writes in the New York Times that nearly a month after federal scientists claimed that an experimental drug had helped patients severely ill with the coronavirus, the research has been published. The drug, remdesivir, was quickly authorized by the Food and Drug Administration for treatment of coronavirus patients, and hospitals rushed to obtain supplies. But until now, researchers and physicians had not seen the actual data. The long-awaited study confirms the essence of the government’s assertions. The trial was rigorous, randomly assigning 1,063 seriously ill patients to receive either remdesivir or a placebo, and remdesivir shortened recovery time from 15 days to 11 days in hospitalized patients. Those who received the drug not only recovered faster but also did not have serious adverse events more often than those who were given the placebo.
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China syndromeU.K. Set to Reverse Huawei Decision
In a dramatic turnaround, the British government will in a few days announce that it was reversing its decision earlier this year to allow Huawei to provide components for Britain’s 5G communication infrastructure. In January, the government said it would push for a deal which would allow Huawei to supply up to 35 percent of the components of the new 5G network, and that these components would be allowed only on the “edge” of the networks, not the networks’ “core.” The government is now set to announce that Huawei’s components will not be allowed in the U.K. 5G networks, and that all of the Chinese company’s gear will be removed from older communication networks by the end of 1922. The government’s January deal would probably have failed to gain approval in parliament, as Conservative backbenchers who oppose the January deal now have more than enough votes to block it.
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BioterrorismTerrorists could use coronavirus as example for future biological attack
Terrorism experts are warning that the coronavirus pandemic could be used as a template for future biological attacks by either state or non-state actors. Security experts with the Council of Europe say that terrorists, assessing the impact of the coronavirus, would now recognize the fact that they can use biological weapons to inflict a major blow on Western countries (or, for that matter, on any country). According to these experts, the virus has exposed how vulnerable modern societies are.
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ExtremismLeader of British Far-Right Group Convicted under Terrorism Law
Paul Golding, 38, the leader of the British far-right political group Britain First, has been found guilty of an offense under the Terrorism Act after refusing to give police access to his mobile phone on his return from a political trip to Russia.
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ExtremismBoogaloo Supporters Animated by Lockdown Protests, Recent Incidents
Across the country, boogalooers are energized by resistance to lockdown restrictions, which they view as tyrannical government overreach. Boogaloo adherents have shown up at numerous lockdown protests, waving boogaloo signs, wearing Hawaiian shirts, and carrying firearms, sometimes illegally. These boogalooers are part of an embryonic, decentralized movement that organizes largely online but whose presence has increasingly been felt in the real world. While boogaloo supporters hail from a variety of movements, and include some white supremacists who advocate for race war, the lockdown protests have largely featured the anti-government version of the boogaloo favored by the militia, gun rights, and anarcho-capitalist movements. Boogaloo advocates are talking openly about providing protection for local businesses determined to reopen in violation of state mandates. The presence of these frequently armed protesters could escalate already tense situations.
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HurricanesHurricanes Are Getting Stronger
In almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger. A warming planet may be fueling the increase.
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Election securityProtecting the 2020 Presidential Election
In 2019 the federal government appropriated for states $425 million, following the $380 million provided to states at the beginning of 2018, with both outlays aiming to help states prevent a repeat of Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election. Then the coronavirus pandemic came ashore, leading states to use previously appropriated election security funds for coronavirus-related election expenses. This is a problem: the U.S. election infrastructure is not yet fully secure, while America’s adversaries continue to augment their technical election-interference capabilities.
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DisinformationThe Dark Arts of Disinformation Through a Historical Lens
History matters because sometimes it repeats itself. In his pioneering analysis of modern disinformation warfare from a historical perspective, Thomas Rid posits from the outset that “only by taking careful and accurate measure of the fantastic past of disinformation can we comprehend the present, and fix the future.”
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WildfiresTracking the tinderbox: Scientists Map Wildfire Fuel Moisture Across Western U.S.
As California and the American West head into fire season amid the coronavirus pandemic, scientists are harnessing artificial intelligence and new satellite data to help predict blazes across the region. Researchers have developed a deep-learning model that maps fuel moisture levels in fine detail across 12 western states, opening a door for better fire predictions.
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Climate crisisGlobal Warming Now Pushing Heat into Territory Humans Cannot Tolerate
The explosive growth and success of human society over the past 10,000 years has been underpinned by a distinct range of climate conditions. But the range of weather humans can encounter on Earth – the “climate envelope” – is shifting as the planet warms, and conditions entirely new to civilization could emerge in the coming decades. Even with modern technology, this should not be taken lightly.
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Our picksThe Boogaloo Menace | Another World War? | COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy, and more
· Why Some Protesters in America Wear Hawaiian Shirts
· How Bad Is the COVID-19 Misinformation Epidemic?
· The Psychology of Inoculation: How Many Will Take a Coronavirus Vaccine?
· Will a Global Depression Trigger Another World War?
· Pandemic Propaganda and the Global Democracy Crisis
· These Are the Fake Experts Pushing Pseudoscience and Conspiracy Theories about the Coronavirus Pandemic
· U.S. Tussles with France, U.N. Over Counterterrorism Efforts in West Africa
· Mother of Manchester Arena Bombing Victim Says “Terrorism Has Not Gone Away” and Teachers Must Look Out for Radicalization
· The British Government Must Stop Kowtowing to China and Side with Our True Allies
· Preventing the Next Boko Haram in Northern Mozambique
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More headlines
The long view
PerspectiveCoronavirus Disease 2019: The Harms of Exaggerated Information and Non‐Evidence‐Based Measures
Those arguing in favor of lockdowns say that postponing the epidemic wave (“flattening the curve”) gains time to develop vaccines and reduces strain on the health system, which otherwise might be overwhelmed. John P. A. Ioannidis writes in the European Journal of Clinical Investigation, however, that vaccines take many months (or even years) to develop and test properly. “Maintaining lockdowns for many months may have even worse consequences than an epidemic wave that runs an acute course,” he writes. “Focusing on protecting susceptible individuals may be preferable to maintaining countrywide lockdowns long-term.” He also notes that different coronaviruses actually infect millions of people every year, and they are common especially in the elderly and in hospitalized patients with respiratory illness in the winter. The only unique aspect of this year’s coronavirus outbreak is the unprecedented attention it has received in the media.
PerspectiveU.S. Intelligence Warned in November that Coronavirus Spreading in China Could Be “Cataclysmic Event”: Report
President Donald Trump has repeatedly claimed that his administration could not have prepared for the pandemic because no government agency could have known that such an out-of-the-blue outbreak would happen. Justin Coleman writes that the president’s claims are false. The U.S. intelligence community began to warn about a global epidemic in November, saying that the outbreak in China could develop into a “cataclysmic event,” and policymakers, decisionmakers, and the National Security Council at the White House were repeatedly briefed on the issue. The coronavirus first appeared in the President’s Daily Brief (PDB) of intelligence matters — placed on the president’s desk every morning — in early January.
PerspectiveCoronavirus Social Distancing Presents Special Challenges to Spies
While the COVID-19 public health crisis grabs the headlines and kills tens of thousands, state-actors and transnational terrorist groups continue to purloin data, spread disinformation and plan terrorist attacks. Jason M. Blazakis writes that the U.S. national security community’s ability to detect threats may be less than optimal because Human intelligence (HUMINT) collection — a key tool to combat terrorism — is impaired during COVID-19.
PerspectiveDon’t Believe the COVID-19 Models: That’s Not What They’re for.
Since the onset of the coronavirus crisis, governments, analysts, and health organizations have released different statistical models addressing the disease – and its numerical manifestations: the number of people likely to be infected; hospitalized; treated in the ICUs; or die. Different models offer different numbers and different trajectories. Which one of them is right? Zeynep Tufecki writes that “The answer is both difficult and simple. Here’s the difficult part: There is no right answer. But here’s the simple part: Right answers are not what epidemiological models are for.” The most important function of epidemiological models is as a simulation, a way to see our potential futures ahead of time, and how that interacts with the choices we make today. Thus, epidemiological models do not give us certainty – they give us something much more important: “agency to identify and calibrate our actions with the goal of shaping our future.”
PerspectivePandemics and the U.S. Military: Lessons from 1918
The novel coronavirus will hit the U.S. military and its allies hard — how hard will depend on a number of variables, some having to do with the virus itself (how and to what extent it mutates, whether it comes back in subsequent waves, etc.) and others having to do with what measures militaries take to protect themselves. Michael Shurkin writes that, fortunately, we have a historical example that could offer some clues on how the virus might affect the military, and the policy choices that at some point today’s military leaders may face. He is referring to the 1918 influenza epidemic — commonly referred to as the Spanish flu.
PerspectiveHow to Keep the New Coronavirus from Being Used as a Terrorist Weapon
The possibility that extremist groups may attempt to deliberately spread SARS-CoV-2—the virus causing the current pandemic—should not be ignored. In fact, one of the primary limiting factors to such an attack—recruiting humans willing to infect themselves—does not apply in this case; potential perpetrators would come from the ranks of those already infected with the virus. We are faced, therefore, with a genuinely challenging task: preemption.
PerspectiveU.S. Intelligence Reports from January and February Warned about a Likely Pandemic
The U.S. intelligence community was issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Donald Trump and lawmakers who support him played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen, according to U.S. officials familiar with the intelligence community’s reporting. White House officials told Shane Harris, Greg Miller, Josh Dawsey, and Ellen Nakashima of the Washington Post that one of the main reasons for Trump’s false and misleading statements in January and February was the fact that he chose to believe China’s President Xi Jingping rather than the U.S. intelligence community on the issue of the coronavirus. During January and February, China was still adamantly denying that there was any epidemic spreading in China.
PerspectiveRight-Wing Extremists’ New Weapon
The 9 October 2019 attack on a synagogue in Halle, in eastern Germany, highlights terrorists’ growing affinity for homemade firearms as a means for leaderless resistance, a decentralized strategy of guerrilla warfare popularized by Ku Klux Klan member Louis Beam. Eric Woods write that “This presents particular legal challenges to the United States, more so than other countries. The United States has an idiosyncratic approach to homemade production of firearms, rooted in its history as a frontier country where informal networks of artisan producers existed for decades before federal armories.”
Perspective: Designer pathogensIs There a Role for the Biological Weapons Convention in Oversight of Lab-Created Potential Pandemic Pathogens?
Fourteen labs in the United States are working on creating mammalian-airborne-transmissible, highly-pathogenic, avian-influenza live viruses. These viruses are examples of lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens that bring up questions reflecting real concerns: Should details of this dual-use research be published? Could lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens be accidentally released from a laboratory into the community and seed a human pandemic? Could they be employed as biological weapons? The probability of accidental release into the community from one of the laboratories in this research enterprise is uncomfortably high. For these and other lab-created potentially pandemic pathogens, just one laboratory-infected researcher could seed a pandemic. Furthermore, a laboratory worker with hostile intent could introduce a potentially pandemic pathogen into the community.
PerspectiveState Pushes to List White Supremacist Group as Terrorist Org
The State Department is pushing to designate at least one violent white supremacist group as a foreign terrorist organization, an unprecedented move which national security experts say would be a big step toward fighting a growing threat on U.S. soil.
PerspectiveWest Africa’s Democratic Progress is Slipping Away, Even as Region’s Significance Grows
Rising authoritarianism is curtailing individual freedoms around the globe. Jon Temin and Isabel Linzer write that in an alarming development, however, the region that showed the fastest decline in political rights and civil liberties last year was West Africa, which had long been a driver of democratic gains. The warning signs have failed to spur corrective action.
PerspectiveIf We Build It (They Will Break In)
Attorney General William Barr has staked his ground in the long-running debate over law enforcement access to encrypted communications. Last fall, Barr criticized end-to-end encryption as “enabling dangerous criminals to cloak their communications and activities behind an essentially impenetrable digital shield.” As the debate continues, commentators and policymakers often overlook a historical example of the problems with law enforcement access.
PerspectiveRandom Toxicity? What’s Going on in @benjaminwittes’s Mentions
Benjamin Wittes, the editor of Lawfare, had supported Brett Kavanaugh’s 2018 nomination to the Supreme Court early on, said nice things about him, and defended him against allegations he thought were spurious. But though he publicly changed his position after Christine Blasey Ford came forward and testified, he writes that ever since, every twit of his, regardless of its topic, is responded to with hundreds or even thousands of angry twits, with practically identical wording, accusing him of having been a “Buddy of Kavanaugh.” Matters only got worse when he supported, albeit tepidly, the appointment of Bill Barr for Attorney General. Who is behind these thousands of similar twits?
PerspectiveSpies, Election Meddling, And Disinformation: Past and Present
Calder Walton writes that following Russia’s “sweeping and systematic” attack on the 2016 U.S. presidential election—which was intended to support Moscow’s favored candidate, Donald J. Trump, and undermine his opponent, Hillary Clinton—the media frequently labeled the operation “unprecedented.” “The social-media technologies that Russia deployed in its cyber-attack on the United States in 2016 were certainly new,” he writes, “but Russia’s strategy was far from unusual. In fact, the Kremlin has a long history of meddling in U.S. and other Western democratic elections and manufacturing disinformation to discredit and divide the West.”
PerspectiveDigital Threats to Democracy
A new study surveyed hundreds of technology experts about whether or not digital disruption will help or hurt democracy by 2030. Of the 979 responses, about 49 percent of these respondents said use of technology “will mostly weaken core aspects of democracy and democratic representation in the next decade,” while 33 percent said the use of technology “will mostly strengthen core aspects of democracy.”
PerspectiveRussia Knows Just Who to Blame for the Coronavirus: America
The coronavirus outbreak has been accompanied by an avalanche of conspiracy theories about the outbreak. “But in Russia the misinformation has been particularly pointed. Russia’s spin doctors have capitalized on the fear and confusion of the epidemic to point the blame at the United States,” Amy McKinnong writers. McKinnon notes that the Russian messaging fits a now well-established pattern in that it doesn’t look to persuade audiences of a single alternative truth, because “That would take effort, planning, and persuasion.” Rather, Kremlin propaganda specialists produce “a steady stream of underdeveloped, sometimes contradictory conspiracy theories intended to exhaust and confuse viewers, making them question the very notion of objective truth itself.”