U.S. Navy experience shows climate alterations

navigation passages could appear by 2030, as well as the opening of new international and territorial waters.

“The implications of reduced Arctic Ocean sea ice require immediate planning and attention by U.S. naval forces,” he said. Specific logistical challenges include remoteness of locations, lack of ports and airbase facilities, limited U.S. icebreakers and insufficient charting, along with increased maritime traffic.

Vulnerability assessments for naval coastal installations must account for storm surge, salt water intrusion, and changes in ocean circulation and wind patterns. “Global rises don’t matter here,” he said. “Sea level rise can be local.”

The NAS report also addressed climate impacts on antisubmarine warfare and future research and development needs, Busalacchi said.

Disparities in current climate science projections “mean that the Navy should plan for a range of contingencies, given our limited ability to predict abrupt change or tipping points for potentially irreversible change,” he said.

Cloud radiative feedback is the largest uncertainty in climate prediction, Busalacchi said, but researchers now are getting better handles on that data from field and spacecraft observations.

Answering a question, he said, “The most significant missing capability in our satellite portfolio is finding an affordable means of on-orbit calibration (to link) stable measurements over a long period of time, and the ability to piece together climate data records … as satellite sensor sensitivity evolves.”

The release notes that he also said that bathymetry, or underwater mapping, in the region is poorly done. “Since the end of the cold war, we’ve lost our experience and training with equipment for the Arctic area,” he said.

Among other unknowns are the effects of climate change on projected global population growth and migration, which could greatly amplify geopolitical stress. “We need increased and enduring education in the developed and developing world,” he said, “so we can mitigate these effects.”

Because increased humanitarian assistance and disaster relief could strain U.S. systems, he said that U.S. Navy hospital ships should be retained.

Busalacchi also lamented the lack of national strategy for long-term space-based climate observation in this country. Some scientists seem to have little sense of cost-benefit analysis in their proposals, he said.

“As a nation, we haven’t come to grips with what are the unique responsibilities of NASA, NOAA and the USGS,” he said. The cost of satellites, he said, “is eating the agencies’ lunch. … Until we can break that Gordian knot, we’re all going to be subject to the pieces falling to the floor.” NOAA is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and USGS is the U.S. Geological Survey.