Countdown begins to attack on Iran

Iran thus already has enough fissile material to produce four or five Hiroshima-size nuclear bombs. Next year, by summer 2013, it will have enough material to produce seven or eight bombs.

Most countries which use enriched uranium for peaceful purposes do not enrich it themselves. Rather, they purchase it from countries that have enrichment programs, and these supplier countries also monitor the use of the enriched uranium to make sure it is not diverted to uses other than peaceful.

The deal the P5+1 have offered Iran is straightforward: Iran will have its peaceful needs for enriched uranium met the way these needs are met in other countries which have peaceful nuclear program, but which do not themselves enrich uranium. Also, all economic sanctions on Iran will be lifted.

The deal is conditioned on Iran doing three things:

• Iran will not enrich uranium to levels higher than those required in power generation (5 percent to 8 percent) – and all enrichment activities will be done under IAEA inspection
• Iran will dismantle its secretive centrifuge farm at Qom
• Iran will ship out, for safekeeping in another country, all the uranium in its possession which is enriched to a level higher than that required by power reactors

As we said above, the differences between the P5+1 and Iran cannot be bridged unless one of two things occur: either Iran gives up its ambition to build nuclear weapons, or the world accepts a nuclear-armed Iran. Short of such a change of heart by one side or the other, there can be no deal.

Military option
After three exhaustive negotiation sessions between the P5+1 and Iran, diplomacy appears to have run its course. The two sides left Moscow on Tuesday without planning a fourth meeting (although it was agreed that some low-level technical teams may continue to meet).

The failure of the negotiations now means that on the first of July, a new round of tough sanctions will be imposed on Iran, making it nearly impossible for it to sell its oil on the world markets (oil accounts to some 80 percent of Iran’s foreign revenues).

In the United States and Israel, planners are now accepting that the likelihood of a military action against Iran is higher than it was a month or two ago, when there was still hope that the talks would yield results. In this context, it is interesting to see the testimony former Senator Charles Robb (D-Virginia) gave before a congressional committee the other day.

Haaretz reports that Robb discussed in some detail the specific weapon systems the Israel Defense Force (IDF) currently does not have, or does not have enough of, for an attack on Iran. Robb called on the United States to provide Israel with KC-135 aerial refueling aircrafts and with at least 200 bunker-busting munitions to augment the 100 Israel already has in its arsenal.

Robb is co-chair of a group of former high officials calling for the United States not to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons. Robb emphasized that he supports diplomacy and economic sanctions, but said that enhancing Israeli and American military capabilities to attack Iran would help the diplomatic and economic measures by adding more pressure on Iran.

Robb also said that supplying Israel with aerial refueling aircrafts and bunker-busting munitions would help reassure Israel, and will contribute to postponing an attack, thus giving diplomacy and economic sanctions more time to work.

If diplomacy and economic measures fail, and a military attack is necessary, then augmenting Israel’s military capabilities would ensure that the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities will be more effective.

Haaretzquotes Robb to say that the 100 GBU-28 bunker-busters the United States provided Israel with in 2006 were no longer enough, and that Israel required 200 of the improved GBU-31 model. The GBU-31 model, he explained, can be dropped from the same planes (F-15s and F-16s) as the GBU-28, and it has the same penetration capabilities, but the newer model’s tail kits are more advanced, allowing for more accuracy and lethality.

Robb said that the result of enhancing Israel’s military capabilities would be more comprehensive damage to Iran’s underground facilities, a larger attack fleet, and the possibility for a second round of attacks if, after bomb damage assessment, it was concluded that a second round was needed.