Morsi faces tough decisions

operatives have now made it into the Sinai.

Israel has abstained, so far, from launching attacks into Sinai out of deference to the 1982 Egypt-Israel peace treaty. But with analysts now openly saying that Sinai would soon resemble the lawless tribal areas of Pakistan, Israel is not going to wait much longer.

The Islamization of Egypt
The Muslim Brotherhood movement was created in 1928, and since then had been suppressed, at times more violently at times less so, until last year. Yet, the anti-Mubarak uprising had a distinct non-religious thrust. The question for Morsi and the Brotherhood  is whether to try and lead Egypt in the direction the Ayatollahs took Iran thirty years ago, or emulate the balance between religion and secularism – and, for that matter, between civilian politicians and the military — exhibited by Turkey.

If he decide to try and turn Egypt into a theocracy, as some of his supporters no doubt want, it is not clear how far he could go, for two reasons. The first is that it is unlikely that the hundreds of thousands of mostly younger, secular people who participated in the anti-Mubarak agitation would quietly accept religious imposition. In an age of social media, it may well be more difficult for any regime to impose anything on a restive population.

The second reason Morsi may hesitate to go too far in the direction of Islamization is that Egypt is totally dependent on foreign aid and tourism. It is not likely that the United States would agree to continue its billions of dollars of aid to Egypt if women are denied their rights and schools are turned in religious madrassas.

Egypt’s social and economic problems are do profound, and the hopes the Egyptian people have of their first elective government must be so high – probably, unrealistically, high – that Morsi would probably be reluctant to jeopardize, at least in the short run, Egypt’s few sources of revenue.

Egypt’s regional policies
The coming of Islamists to power in Egypt may, at least on some front, be helpful to the United States. One of the U.S. closest allies in the region is Saudi Arabia, one of the strictest Islamic regimes in the area. Saudi Arabia has emerged as the region’s staunchest foe of Iran and the latter’s hegemonic aspirations.

The Saudis have helped fund Sunni militias in Iraq to provide protection to Sunni communities and balance Shi’a militias. The Saudis did the same in Lebanon, funding and arming Sunni militias to balance the growing power of the Shi’a Hezbollah. The Saudis organized a mini Sunni coalition to send forces into Bahrain to help the besieged Sunni rulers withstand Shi’a agitation. The Saudis have been the organizers of a massive support efforts to to the anti-Assad forces in Syria. Together with other Sunni countries – Turkey, Qatar, and Jordan – the Saudis are now openly sending arms and funds to the rebels in Syria in a campaign which they hope would replace the minority Alawite regime with a majority Sunni regime.

Secretly, the Saudis have also been coordinating military moves with Israel in anticipation of an Israeli military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Among other things, Israel will be allowed to use Saudi air bases to launch attacks into Iran.

The Morsi government may be tougher on Israel when it comes to the Palestinian issue, and it remains to be seen how resolute it will be when it comes to al Qaeda-inspired terrorism, but at least on the issue of Iran, and of Iran’s supporters in the region, the new government may be closer to the Saudi view and, hence, to the U.S. and Israel view.