Storm forecastingU.S. hurricane supercomputers need an upgrade

During the hurricane season, which began last week, the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) will use models from several supercomputers from around the world to generate predictions about hurricanes’ landfall, path, and intensity. Forecasters from the National Hurricane Center will use American and European supercomputers to generate several models of a storm, then average them to plot the storm’s path. These supercomputers receive data from weather satellites, observations and weather balloons, and then apply sophisticated algorithms to the data.

ABC News reports that meteorologists say that the two American supercomputers used for storm models are underpowered and inferior to the European computers.

“Let me be blunt: the state of operational U.S. numerical weather prediction is an embarrassment to the nation and it does not have to be this way,” wrote Cliff Maas, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington on his weather blog.

NWS plans on upgrading the two main forecasting computers on which I relies. The two computers, located in Orlando, Florida and Reston, Virginia, will receive a $25 million upgrade as part of a Hurricane Sandy supplemental bill approved by Congress.

Experts with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say the European computers outperform American computers not only because they have more processing power. There are other reasons:

• The European model focuses on medium-range weather prediction, while the American model looks at short, medium, and long-range global weather, along with atmospheric, ocean, coastal, hurricane and space weather. This means that it takes longer to generate a prediction.
• European weather agencies have one budget that focuses only on research and development relating to medium-range weather, while NOAA has a fragmented budget and multiple research and development projects managed under multiple organizations.
• European weather agencies do not build observational systems, while NOAA does.

Jeff Masters, the meteorology director at Weather Underground, says that investing in better computers will allow weather agencies in the U.S. spend less money on other weather-related technology.

“If the U.S. did invest more money and people into making the model better, then the forecast would be better,” Masters told ABC News. “The money we spend on weather forecasts and improving them pays for itself.”

Some meteorologists say it makes no difference whether or not improvements are made to U.S. weather computers, and whether American storm models are improved so they match their European counterparts. The reason: American meteorologists use both American and European models to plot the path of a hurricane.

Experts note that the needed improvements in U.S. weather computers notwithstanding, hurricane predictions and warnings have become significantly more accurate in the last ten years, allowing for earlier warning, longer preparation times, and more accurate predictions on how strong a hurricane will be.