Deteriorating Sinai Peninsula security situation poses problems for Israel, Egypt

The situation has deteriorated to a point where Iran- and Islamist-inspired Bedouin militants, sensing an opportunity to settle a few scores with the hated Egyptians, began to attack Egyptian soldiers and police officers, killing scores of them in attacks on police station and military outposts.

Israel allowed Egypt to increase its military forces in Sinai, and the Egyptians, even under President Morsi, launched a few campaigns to suppress the growing militancy, but with little to show for these efforts.

Last Friday’s attack by Israeli drones, based in information provided by Egypt’s military intelligence, shows that the security situation in Sinai, and the responses to it by Egypt and Israel, have reached a new stage.

For Israel, the security problem in Sinai is different from security problems in, say, Lebanon, Syria, or the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip. The latter three are officially in a state of war with Israel, so Israeli ground or air incursions into Lebanon or Syria or the Gaza Strip are typically accepted with understanding.

Egypt and Israel, however, have a peace treaty, so Israel cannot openly carry out counter-terrorism strikes on sovereign Egyptian territory.

The combination of three elements thus complicates the situation:

• The growing Islamic militancy and terrorist activity in the Sinai Peninsula
• The fact that the Egyptian military, despite a few security sweeps in the Sinai, has so far been unable to deal with the security threat effectively
• And the peace agreement between Israel and Egypt which, on the one hand, limits the Egyptian military presence in Sinai and, on the other hand, makes it impossible for Israel to engage in its own security operations in the area (unless coordinated with Egypt)

The Jerusalem Post reports that until now, the IDF’s focus in dealing with the deteriorating security situation has been on enhancing its ability quickly to identify threats, and direct accurate firepower at targets that can appear and disappear in the sand dunes.

Other efforts include the completion of the southern border barrier, stretching from Kerem Shalom near the Gaza Strip to Eilat in the south. The defensive fence system is equipped with advanced sensors that feed command and control rooms with data. The fencing system is augmented from above by surveillance drones and blimps.

The Post notes that enhanced field intelligence capabilities along the border have also been improved, as the IDF is seeking to gain a better understanding of the political and cultural developments among residents of the Sinai in order to lessen the likelihood of being taken by surprise.

The port city of Eilat is now also being defended by better air defenses in the form of the Iron Dome rocket-defense batteries deployed in the area.

Israel has also, on numerous occasions in the past two years, allowed the Egyptian military to augment the number and quality of its own forces in the Sinai, especially as these forces, since the ouster of Morsi, appear more willing to take on the militants.

It should be noted that the Egyptian government is not doing a favor to Israel. The growing influence of al Qaeda-inspired jihadists among Sinai Bedouins, and the continuing presence of Iran-affiliated arms smuggling network in the area, pose a threat to the Egyptian regime itself, especially since the toppling of Morsi. Many Bedouins now dare take directly on the Egyptian military and police, publicly announcing their support for Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood, even if, for many of them, the identification with the Brotherhood has less to do with deep religious beliefs and ore to do with hatred toward the Egyptian military. .

The Post concludes:

Sinai’s terrorist groups are made up of radicalized local Beduin, residents of Egypt proper and foreign jihadi volunteers.
They have been busy training and procuring arms, including a variety of projectiles, machine guns and explosives, some of which originate from the abandoned arms storage facilities in Libya.
The IDF’s Southern Command assumes that the next attack from the peninsula is only a matter of time. The Sinai balancing act is set to continue into the foreseeable future.