TerrorismKenya mall attack may help terrorists recruit in U.S.

Published 24 September 2013

Some security experts believe that the deadly terrorist attack on a Nairobi shopping mall by Somali al Shabab militants is a “great shot in the arm” to the al Qaeda-linked group’s efforts to recruit fighters from the West, including the United States. Al Shabab is believed to have several thousand fighters, among them a few hundred foreigners. Some of those foreigners include recruits from Somali communities in the United States and Europe.

Al-Shabaab fighters in Somalia // Source: ansar-alhaqq.net

The deadly terrorist attack on a Nairobi shopping mall by Somali al Shabab militants is a “great shot in the arm” to the al Qaeda-linked group’s efforts to recruit fighters from the West, including the United States, Mark Schroeder, vice president of Africa analysis at Stratfor, a geopolitical intelligence firm terror experts, told FoxNews.com.

Al Shabab is believed to have several thousand fighters, among them a few hundred foreigners. Some of those foreigners include recruits from Somali communities in the United States and Europe.

“Clearly the attack in Nairobi and the target was selected for its propaganda value,” said Schroeder. “Al Shabab has really not been successful attacking hardened sites in Somalia, so it clearly shifted its method by attacking this preeminent shopping mall in Nairobi. It will be a great shot in the propaganda arm to show that al-Shabab is a vibrant militant group.”

Schroeder says the attack sent a clear message to would-be jihadists: “We’re still credible and we’re alive,” he said. “So come join us. That’s going to be the message.”

Representative Peter King (R-New York), a member of the House Homeland Security Committee, said that al Shabab has recruited about fifty Americans over the past few years. They have traveled to Somalia, and about half of them have been killed. King said about twenty or so of the American recruits are still active with al Shabab in Somalia.

Schroeder say that figure could grow in the wake of the attack. “What they do is identify and cultivate religious leaders in the Somali communities, the imams of the mosques, and, through covert means, use those imams to identify vulnerable Somali youth who can travel back to Somalia and participate as fighters or smuggle back material support,” Schroeder said of al-Shabab’s effort to recruit Americans.

Schroeder told Fox News that while Minnesota, home to the largest Somali population in the United States, remains the primary potential domestic breeding ground, other pockets exist in Iowa and Arizona.

“They struggle in school, they can’t rise and succeed,” he said of potential American-born recruits, adding that they young Somalis are likely disenchanted with the American way of life and subject to emotional manipulation.

The key concern for U.S. intelligence officials regarding al-Shabab is to ensure that American-born citizen do not receives training from the group and then return stateside, Katherine Zimmerman, a senior analyst at the American Enterprise Institute, told Fox News.

“[U.S. recruits helping al Shabab is] of significant concern for us,” Zimmerman said. “Al-Shabab certainly has the capabilities to carry our an attack in Kenya and has links down into Tanzania as well, but I don’t think it’s at the level it can carry out a full-scale attack on the [United States].”

Some security and terrorism experts told Fox News that the Nairobi attack is unlikely to have a significant effect on the group’s overall recruiting efforts, largely due to the nature of the target.

“In a way, it shows they’re still active and that will have some appeal to some individuals, but at the same time, going after shopping malls is not exactly as admirable a target as going after military targets,” said Dan Byman, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Byman, who said the group has extensive ties to Somali expatriates in Europe and North America, thinks al Shabab has the aspirations and the capability to carry out an attack on U.S. soil, but no indicators suggest a strike is imminent.

“Yes, but I don’t want to be melodramatic about it,” Byman said of a possible U.S. attack, adding that any such incident would likely be small-scale.