Infrastructure protectionU.S. infrastructure vulnerable to “cascading system failures” caused by weather disasters

Published 13 March 2014

Two U.S. government reports released last Thursday warn that U.S. infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. One report focuses on energy, the second on infrastructure more generally. The infrastructure-focused report is the first attempt to review climate implications across all sectors and regions. The report analyzes how damage to one infrastructure sector can impact other infrastructure sectors, rather than isolating specific types of infrastructure. The authors warn that climate-fueled weather disasters could cause “cascading system failures” unless changes are adopted to minimize such effects.

Two U.S. government reports released last Thursday warn that U.S. infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The reports contain compilations of technical documents supporting the National Climate Assessment. The Assessment is a review of climate impact on U.S. infrastructure, prepared by thirteen government agencies. The U.S. Global Change Research Program will release the Assessment in April 2014.

Island Press has published the full-length version of the reports – the first one focusing on energy, the second one on infrastructure more broadly.

Thomas Wilbanks, a research fellow at the Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory and lead author and editor of the reports, says climate-fueled weather disasters could cause “cascading system failures” unless changes are adopted to minimize such effects. Wilbanks notes that the infrastructure-focused report is the first attempt to review climate implications across all sectors and regions. The report analyzes how damage to one infrastructure sector can impact other infrastructure sectors, rather than isolating specific types of infrastructure.

Grist notes that the report discusses previous extreme weather events, which scientists warn may be exacerbated by climate change, to depict the types of infrastructure failures that could occur. Hurricane Katrina, for example, caused loss of electricity around the New Orleans region, which meant several oil pipelines could not ship oil and gas for days, and that some refineries could not operate. As a result, gas prices increased dramatically around the country.

Other examples would include a major storm wiping out communications lines, a blackout that cuts power to sewage treatment or wastewater systems, and a weather event that damages a bridge or major highway.

As the says:

a central theme of the report is that vulnerabilities and impacts are issues beyond physical infrastructures themselves. The concern is with the value of services provided by infrastructures, where the true consequences of impacts and disruptions involve not only the costs associated with the cleanup, repair, and/or replacement of affected infrastructures but also economic, social, and environmental effects as supply chains are disrupted, economic activities are suspended, and/or social well-being is threatened.

The report exposes vulnerabilities in the nation’s electric system, noting that recent incidents in which heat waves caused massive increases in energy use for cooling buildings, resulting in a strained power grid. The report also highlights cases in which power plants were at risk of flooding or had to halt operations due to high temperature and droughts.

“One quarter of existing power generation facilities are in counties associated with some type of water sustainability concern,” said David Schmalzer, coauthor of the energy-focused report. “Warmer air and water are expected to reduce the efficiency of thermal power, while hydropower and biofuels will also face increased uncertainty. Even electricity sources not dependent on water supplies, such as wind and solar power, also face increased variability, as a changing climate will potentially impact the variability of their resources.”

The report focuses on the near-term effects of climate change, those that cities, states, and the federal government can expect to experience in the next few decades. Wilbanks said that “there’s this crunch between vulnerability of infrastructure because it’s aging or stressed because they are so heavily used, and they’re being exposed to new threats like more frequent, extreme weather events.” The urgency to prepare for the effects of climate change on infrastructure comes at a time when governments are facing “great difficulty in coming up with public sector financing to replace or revitalize them,” says Wilbanks.

The reports include recommendations for building resilience into current and future infrastructure projects. Wilbanks believes that the country needs a partnership between different levels of government, industry, community groups, and nongovernmental organizations. “No one party is the best to do it all,” said Wilbanks. “What we really need is some innovative thinking about financing.”

— Read more in Thomas J. Wilbanks, Climate Change and Energy Supply and Use: Technical Report for the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment (Island Press, 2014); and Thomas J. Wilbanks and Steven Fernandez, Climate Change and Infrastructure, Urban Systems, and Vulnerabilities (Island Press, 2014)