Peace in the Philippines, but what next for the MILF?

Misuari has already been accused of playing a role in two recent incidents that were allegedly intended to hamper the negotiations. The first was a strange attempt by the “Sultan of Sulu”, Jamalul Kiram III, to reclaim land in Borneo in February 2013. Later, in September, Misuari is alleged to have facilitated a three-week stand-off in which 200 individuals were taken hostage in Zamboanga City in Mindanao.

Misuari has been in hiding since the Zamboanga incident. Although MNLF chairman Abul Khayr Alonto is supportive of the peace process, Misuari retains a loyal group of supporters.

Also, the government still needs to contend with the ASG and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF). Although these groups are notably smaller than both the MILF and MNLF, they are significantly more radical and ruthless.

The BIFF broke away from the MILF in disagreement with the peace talks in 2008, and has been accused of carrying out various attacks, including an attack on the military HQ in Maguindanao in February.

Meanwhile, the notorious ASG is listed as a terrorist organization by many western countries (including Australia). It is considered the most violent Islamist group in the southern Philippines due to its tactics of taking hostages and occasionally beheading them.

The MILF’s disarmament
As part of the MILF’s disarmament, the insurgency has vowed to turn in the weapons of between 10,000 and 15,000 fighters. The Annex of Normalisation within the Framework Agreement stipulates that the MILF will undergo a graduated program of decommissioning, with a third party overseeing this process related to both weapons and MILF forces.

A concern is that it is unclear how much arsenal the MILF holds. Its “forces” not only include MILF combatants, but also private armies that operate within the region.

With claims there are already defections from the MILF to the MNLF, the disengagement and reintegration of former combatants will be the next challenge. This is particularly the case as many of these combatants have been fighting since the insurgency’s inception.

For success in the long term, measures must be implemented to assist combatants in returning to civilian life — including employment. A challenge also seen within many other conflict environments is that often these individuals lack marketable skills or experience of seeking work. Given the organizations still active in Mindanao, there is no lack of opportunities for the fighters to redirect their combatant experience elsewhere.

It is positive that a final peace arrangement has been signed and the importance of a Bangsamoro political entity has been recognized. But the same steely determination on behalf of both the MILF and Philippines government needs to be maintained to bring stability to the troubled region.

Alexandra Phelan is Teaching Associate/Ph.D. Candidate at School of Social Sciences at Monash University. This story is published courtesy of The Conversation (under Creative Commons-Attribution/No derivatives).