Infrastructure protectionN.C. “rolling” 30-year sea level rise report gaining support from both sides
In 2010, coastal developers and Republican legislators in North Carolina were alarmed when a state science panel warned that the Atlantic Ocean is expected to increase by thirty-nine inches along the state’s shores by the end of the century. The state legislature soon ordered a four-year moratorium on official sea-level predictions and gave the Coastal Resources Commission(CRC) guidelines for developing a new official state forecast. In May, Frank Gorham III, chairman of the commission, announced that the next forecast will only predict sea-level rise for the next thirty years, a time span during which model-based predictions about sea level rise along the North Carolina coast – about eight inches — are largely accepted by both sides to the climate change debate. Gorham stresses, however, that he wants a “rolling” 30-year forecast to be updated every five years.
In 2010, coastal developers and Republican legislators in North Carolina were alarmed when a state science panel warned that the Atlantic Ocean is expected to increase by thirty-nine inches along the state’s shores by the end of the century. The state legislature soon ordered a four-year moratorium on official sea-level predictions and gave the Coastal Resources Commission (CRC) guidelines for developing a new official state forecast. In May, Frank Gorham III, chairman of the commission, announced that the next forecast will only predict sea-level rise for the next thirty years, a time span during which model-based predictions about sea level rise along the North Carolina coast – about eight inches — are largely accepted by both sides to the climate change debate.
Gorham stresses, however, that he wants a “rolling” 30-year forecast to be updated every five years.News Observer reports that some coastal residents and city planners are interested in learning how sea-level rise will affect their shores beyond thirty-years, but they expect a greater public support for the new report now that it has been limited to three-decades. “I thought it was a very balanced and smart way to approach it,” said Phil Prete, senior environmental planner for the city of Wilmington.
Todd Miller, president of the North Carolina Coastal Federation, who expects an eight inch increase in sea-level along North Carolina shores within the next thirty years, says that “The question is, is 30 years a good time horizon to do planning for something that’s going to be around for 100 years?” Miller notes that large infrastructure projects like bridges, water lines, and hospitals that have a fifty-to-100-year lifespan must take into account the effects of sea-level rise beyond the thirty-year span.
Gorham’s next task in preparing the new report is assembling a science panel that he believes would not bring bias and controversy to the process. “Quite frankly, the vast majority of all nominations are clearly in one camp or another,” Gorham said in a June memo to commission members. “If you pick one of these, are you trying to stack the deck or play politics from the other side’s viewpoint?” Coastal geologist and shore protection manager for Carteret County Greg “Rudi” Rudolph, was recently nominated by Gorham to fill one of four vacant seats on the panel. Candidates with records of expressing skepticism about climate science were kept off the panel.
Panel chair, engineer Margery Overton of North Carolina State University, is expected to preside over the panel’s meeting in July with plans to deliver a draft forecast to the CRC by the end of this year, followed by months of review and deliberation before the commission submits an official forecast to the legislature in 2016.
