EbolaHow Ebola started, spread and spiraled out of control
Too slow. Too little, too late. Unprecedented. Out of control. These are just some of the descriptors for the biggest recorded epidemic of human infection by an ebolavirus. Latest worst-case modelling predicts up to 1.4 million people might become infected in this outbreak by mid-January 2015. With 70 percent mortality rate, this means 980,000 dead. Every infectious disease outbreak has a “personality”; this one includes the introduction of a terrifying disease into a completely susceptible population, in a part of the world with no chance of stopping it alone. West Africa has very few health-care workers, poor roads and sizable distances between villages, towns and cities. These factors in combination with traditions, especially those for preparing loved ones for burial, have conspired to produce a perfect storm of opportunity for Ebola virus transmission and spread.
Too slow. Too little, too late. Unprecedented. Out of control. These are just some of the descriptors for the biggest recorded epidemic of human infection by an ebolavirus.
The question by some is how this happened? As of this writing, 5,347 people are suspected or known to be infected (an undoubted underestimate) in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria and Senegal. And 2,630 have died.
The previously stated death rate of 49 percent is also a serious underestimate. The World Health Organization has calculated the fatality rate among confirmed cases with known outcomes to be above 70 percent overall and 64 percent for those who were hospitalized.
Latest worst-case modelling predicts up to 1.4 million people might become infected in this outbreak; 70 percent of which is 980,000 souls.
How did it happen?
The outbreak was identified six months ago, three months after it is believed to have begun from a single animal-to-human transfer.
The world was soon after assured by those in senior roles that Ebola virus disease outbreaks were not hard to control and ebolaviruses were not easy to catch. This was meant to apply even to members of the Zaire ebolavirus species (an Ebola virus), one of which now ravages West Africa.
(Note, Ebola virus is the name of the Zaire species, while ebolavirus refers to all species).
Were assurances just hubris or simply a failure to recognize this outbreak for what it was?
Every infectious disease outbreak has a “personality”; this one includes the introduction of a terrifying disease into a completely susceptible population, in a part of the world with no chance of stopping it alone.
West Africa has very few health-care workers, poor roads and sizable distances between villages, towns and cities. These factors in combination with traditions, especially those for preparing loved ones for burial, have conspired to produce a perfect storm of opportunity for Ebola virus transmission and spread.
We often hear that ebolaviruses were not known to exist in Western Africa prior to this outbreak. But that is not strictly correct. Two scientific studies published in 1986, using samples collected in 1973 and 1981-82, had already reported finding haemorrhagic fever viruses, including Ebola virus, in the forests of Liberia.
Another study, co-authored by Dr. Sheik Umar Khan who subsequently succumbed to an Ebola virus infection in Sierra Leone, was published after the outbreak began. It found signs of Ebola virus in samples collected from 2006 to 2008.
