Does Obama face the prospect of boots on the ground in Yemen?

Events in Yemen are moving fast: the US-backed president, Abd Rabbuh Manṣūr Hadi, has been deposed by Shia rebels, after a “slow coup” that saw the Iran-backed Houthi militia take effective control of the capital, Sana’a, and besiege Hadi in the presidential palace.

The United States reacted to the removal of its ally by closing off the public parts of its embassy, while a drone strike against al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) reportedly killed three fighters. How the situation might resolve itself is anybody’s guess at the moment and must be keeping the Obama administration up at night.

In the wake of the Charlie Hebdo attack in Paris, it became clear that at least one of the attackers had a connection with AQAP. How much of a connection is unclear, but it is a reminder that AQAP is the only significant al-Qaeda offshoot with transnational aspirations — especially an intent to attack the “far enemy” of the United States and its allies.

Some other highly significant groups, especially Islamic State, may increasingly seek to take the war to the West but these have little connection with the old al-Qaeda, having clearly overshadowed it in recent years.

The Yemen connection, though, does raise the important question of whether U.S. policy toward AQAP in Yemen, often represented as something of a success story, is coming apart at the seams. This is in the wake of the removal of Hadi this week by Houthi rebels closely linked to the former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who was forced to stand down in the face of public pressure two years ago. The question of the U.S. position is even more salient given the resumption of U.S. drone strikes against AQAP earlier this week.

Complex and dangerous
The conflict in Yemen is extraordinarily complex, encompassing the Huthi rebellion, the involvement of Saudi Arabia and possibly Iran, the southern separatist movement and also AQAP, all in a country with declining oil reserves, a serious water shortage, and a population of twenty-five million people, many of them in serious poverty.

Helen Lackner’s recent analysis is probably the best available and points to the failure of Western states to give sufficient aid to Hadi in his efforts to reconcile differences in a state marred by competing elites and factionalism. It is in the context of this failure that U.S. policy toward AQAP has to be discussed.