Coastal infrastructureN.C. scientific panel completes sea-level rise forecast draft

In January, the North Carolina Coastal Resources Commission advisory science panel completed its draft copy of sea-level rise forecasts for five regions along the North Carolina coast over the next thirty years. That draft copy has now been released for a public comment period that will last through 31 December, before being finalized in early 2016 and delivered to the state’s General Assembly by 1 March 2016.

The report is a second attempt after the General Assembly rejected a similar report in 2010 following claims by coastal developers and some Republican legislators that the science panel’s predictions were biased. That first report warned the state to prepare for a thirty-nine-inch sea level rise by 2100, and it was based mainly on sea-level rise projections from the northern part of the state.

According to theCharlotte Observer, the most recent draft report must be updated every five years and reflects five tide gauges along North Carolina’s northern and southern coast. The differences between sea levels in the northern and southern coasts of North Carolina are due to shifting geologic masses which are descending at a faster rate in the north. The tectonic shifts are the result of melting glaciers in the last ice age, and the gradual compression of glacier sediments deposited on the state’s northern coast. According to the 43-page draft report, by 2045, the seas will rise between 6.5 and 12.1 inches at Duck, between 4.8 and 11.6 inches at the Oregon Inlet Marina, between 4.9 and 9.3 inches at Beaufort, between 4.1 and 8.5 inches at Wilmington, and between 4.0 and 8.5 inches at Southport.

“There is a very strong message that sea level is rising,” said Margery Overton, a coastal engineering professor at North Carolina State University and the science panel’s chairwoman. “And that in and of itself is a very important message to get across to this state,” she added.

Computer consultant Dave Burton, who had hoped last year to join the science panel, disagrees with the panel’s sea level rise predictions. While the panel agrees with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that greenhouse gases, warming waters, and melting glaciers will accelerate sea level rise in the coming decades, Burton does not. Still, he finds improvements in this recent draft of the report. “There’s no perfection in this world, but it’s much better than the 2010 report,” Burton said. “At least there’s a lot more reliance on actual data this time.”

Public comments may be submitted via email to Tancred Miller, Division of Coastal Management’s coastal and ocean policy manager, at Tancred.Miller@ncdenr.gov.