Analysis // SyriaEndgame in Syria: Assad forces in retreat as rebels increase pressure
The attention to developments in Iraq caused many to miss the more important developments to the north, where the Assad regime, for the first time since the Syrian rebellion began four years ago, appears to be weakening in the face of the growing effectiveness of the rebel forces and the accelerating disintegration of what remains of the Syrian military. Military analysts say that the regime may soon be forced to abandon Damascus and concentrate its dwindling forces in the northwest coastal region of Syria which is controlled by Alawites, but the Alawite region may not be a safer haven for Assad, though. Since March, the rebels have defeated the Syrian military in a series of important battles, and have been pressing their westward advance. There is a growing sense in the region that the situation in Syria is changing, and that these changes do not favor President Assad.
The attention of reporters and analysts has recently been focused on developments in Iraq. The fall of Anbar province’s main city of Ramadi to the Islamic State, facilitated by the poor performance of the Iraqi military and the Iran-supported Shi’a militias, has again pushed to the fore the issue of increased U.S. military involvement on the ground as the only effective way, at least in the short run, of pushing the Islamic State’s forces back.
This attention to developments in Iraq caused many to miss the more important developments to the north, where the Assad regime, for the first time since the Syrian rebellion began four years ago, appears to be weakening in the face of the growing effectiveness of the rebel forces and the accelerating disintegration of what remains of the Syrian military.
Military analysts say that the regime may soon be forced to abandon Damascus and concentrate its dwindling forces in the northwest coastal region of Syria which is controlled by Alawites, the Shi’a branch to which the Assads belong. There are 2.6 million Alawites in Syria, accounting for 12 percent of the country’s twenty-two million people.
Since January, the tide of the civil war in Syria has turned. Sunni rebel groups have:
- Increased their pressure in and around Damascus
- Made major gains in the strategic Qalamoun Mountains range which controls the border between Syria and Lebanon
- Have made important advances in northwest Syria, threatening the Alawite enclave in northwest Syria
- Gained control of most of Syria’s border crossing
The Assad regime and it staunch ally, Iran, were convinced that the war against the Sunni fundamentalist Islamic State would create a situation in which the United States, and the West more generally, would see Shi’a Iran and the Alawite Assad clan as allies in the war against Islamic State.
This calculation may be somewhat applicable, within limits, to Iraq, but not in Syria: The determination of Syria’s Sunni majority to get rid of Assad, a determination supported by neighboring Turkey and funded by Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, has created a situation in which the very same moderate Sunni forces now being trained and armed by the United States and Jordan are fighting a two front war – on the one front they help the U.S.-led coalition fight Islamic State, while on the second front they have finally managed to turn the tide against the Assad regime and its forces.
