What would it take to end California’s drought?

Another way to look at drought is through the lens of supply and demand, and while a wet winter might help with supply, it won’t much affect demand. In a helpful article, Kelly Redmond of the Desert Research Institute explores the supply-and-demand challenge in depth, noting that the questions of whether there is “enough” water and for what purpose are big ones which are often left out of the equation. So, for example, the commonly referred to estimates that the state needs an extra year or two of rain to end the drought are interesting to contemplate but are focused on making up for a precipitation shortfall and do not say much about demand.

Finally, no matter how you define drought, its impacts have been incredibly variable across the state, so it makes sense that recovery will also be contextual, differing from place to place. For instance, as a recent report from the Public Policy Institute of California points out, many urban centers have been resilient in the face of drought, while many rural communities have faced a suite of drought-related challenges, ranging from a decline in air qualityto lack of running water.

So, what would it mean to end the drought?
In California, it has become clear that drought is a multi-faceted challenge and may in fact exist on more of a continuum than anything else, potentially limiting the utility of the word over time. On a practical level, however, here are some of the factors we will be monitoring:

• snowfall: Increased rain will be helpful, but we also need snow since the mountain snowpack supplies surface water to streams and lakes. And both are needed in the right places and at the right times across the state.
• groundwater: The impacts of the current drought have not been more severe, particularly for the agricultural community, because groundwater stores have been used to replace diminished surface water in many places. How long it will take for some of those groundwater sources to be restored is variable by location. What it means to truly replenish groundwater is also an open question.
• reservoirs: California depends on a complex set of reservoirs, canals and natural waterways to store and move water. Location and storm intensity will be important for refilling depleted reservoirs and lifting supply restrictions.
• river and stream flows: Fish and other wildlife continue to be challenged by drought conditions. Flows will need to return for healthy, diverse ecosystems to thrive.
• surface water for agriculture: Irrigation cutbacks have been severe in some parts of the state. As noted, groundwater has helped to offset these reductions, but having surface water flows for agriculture restored will be a key sign of relief.
• water for communities: Urban water users have faced state-mandated reduction targets this year. For rural communities, teasing drought impacts apart from underlying issues of poverty and uncertainty is a challenge. Water security, or ensuring reliable supply, for the state’s residents should be the primary objective of any future water policy.

California’s current water situation offers an invitation to expand how we think about water and drought conditions. A more nuanced perspective about what drought means and our water needs can help continue the momentum on the shifts, such as conservation measures and groundwater management, needed to deal with what is certainly an uncertain future.

Faith Kearns is Water Analyst, California Institute for Water Resources at University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources; Doug Parker is Director, California Institute for Water Resources and Strategic Initiative Leader for the Water Initiative at University of California, Division of Agriculture and Natural Resources. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation (under Creative Commons-Attribution/No derivative.