Climate change heightening the risk of conflict and war
2. Climate change is exacerbating tensions in areas with existing global instability, increasing the risk of conflict, and changing the nature of ADF missions
- The impacts of climate change can exacerbate other stresses, like poverty, economic shocks, and unstable institutions, to make crises worse, particularly in countries with poor governance or existing instability.
- For instance, increasing extreme weather events can reduce the availability of food. Extreme weather and water scarcity contributed to soaring food prices, which saw food riots erupt across Africa and the Middle East in 2008. Rising food prices in 2011 have also been identified as one of the factors that destabilized the Middle East, leading, for example, to the Arab Spring.
3. The Australian Defense Force is already under pressure from climate change
- Australia and the Asia-Pacific region are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The ADF is increasingly called upon to deliver humanitarian assistance in response to the rise in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events and their impacts both at home and in the region. In serious cases the ADF coordinates with civilian disaster relief organizations in Australia and with a range of military and civilian organization in other countries to provide assistance.
- Extreme weather could also affect the ADF’s readiness and capability by disabling critical military and civilian infrastructure at times when rapid mobilization is needed. Defense property (military bases) are also at risk from sea- level rise and extreme weather.
- Rising temperatures and more frequent and intense heatwaves have implications for the health of Australia’s military personnel when undertaking training and conducting military exercises.
4. Limiting the security consequences of a changing climate requires strong action by countries like Australia
- Global emissions must start tracking strongly downward this decade if there is to be a chance of keeping the warming of the planet to below 2°C, and thereby limit the severity of climate change and its implications for security.
- The upcoming COP21 conference in Paris is a crucial turning point that must build momentum towards rapid and deep decarbonization of the global economy over the coming decades.
- We must adapt to the inevitable changes that are already occurring while working hard to minimize the long-term changes, some of which could be massive, abrupt and disruptive.
The organizers of the climate security summit said that the bottom line is clear and compelling:Climate change is far more than “just” an environmental issue; it fundamentally changes our relationship with food and water, which is essential for our well-being and for the viability of nearly all other forms of life. “We have collectively built and optimized all of human civilization for the relatively stable climate that has existed for thousands of years, starting at the end of the last ice age,” the organizers of the summit said. “That climate is now changing rapidly.”
The summit organizers quote Brigadier-General Wendell Christopher King (Ret.), the Chief Academic Officer at the U.S. Army’s Command and General Staff College, who said: “[Climate change] is like getting embroiled in a war that lasts 100 years….There is no exit-strategy.”
— Read more in The Australian Climate Security Summit: Exploring the significant and growing security challenges presented by a changing climate (Climate Council, 2015)
