New York proposes new sea-level rise projection regulations

DEC’s proposed projections are based on peer-reviewed research by scientists at Columbia University, Cornell University, and Hunter College in the ClimAID study, which was funded by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority. The original 2011 research report and the 2014 update are available at NYSERDA’s Web site.

The ClimAID projections include consideration of the possibility of rapid melt of land-based ice on Antarctica and Greenland, which could result in significantly higher rates of sea-level rise than would otherwise occur. Subsequent reports continue to affirm the underlying assumption that ice melt will likely accelerate beyond historical rates of melt.

The proposed regulation provides a range of projections suitable for risk-based planning and review of projects of varying projected life times and risk tolerance. For example, the New York City/Lower Hudson projections range from a low of 15 inches to a high of 75 inches by 2100.

Projections for Long Island and the Mid-Hudson are similar. By having a full range of projections, decision makers will be able to consider the possibility of more rapid sea-level rise when planning long-term land-use change and critical, long-lived infrastructure.

Public officials welcomed DEC’s proposal.

New York Secretary of State Cesar A. Perales said, “These proposed regulations are a critical step forward as the Department of State and other State agencies work to provide clear and consistent guidance to communities on how to address the future threats they face from sea level rise. These projections will help the Department work with its State, local and regional partners on the Local Waterfront Revitalization Program and SmartGrowth initiatives to plan for and create a more resilient New York.”

State Senator Diane J. Savino, the Senate sponsor of the Act, said, “The Community Risk and Resiliency Act will play a crucial role in reducing our risks from sea level rise and extreme weather events. It requires advance planning for extreme weather events as well as the consideration of the effects of climate change. Taking full consideration of the risks from sea level rise, storm surge, and flooding will increase the resilience of our communities. I am very pleased that the Department of Environmental Conservation has proposed regulations to adopt sea-level rise projections pursuant to the Act, and I’m looking forward to a vibrant discussion of these proposals in the weeks to come.”

Assemblyman Steve Englebright, Chairman of the Assembly Committee on Environmental Conservation said, “According to the National Climate Assessment, the Northeast has experienced a greater recent increase in extreme precipitation than any other region in the U.S.; between 1958 and 2010, the Northeast saw more than a 70 percent increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (defined as the heaviest 1 percent of all daily events). These statistics have been illustrated most recently by the devastating impacts of storms such as Sandy, Lee, and Irene. In addition to the tragic loss of life, property and environmental damage, there is also a steep economic cost of extreme weather events and rising sea level. For example, the financial toll of Superstorm Sandy on New York is estimated to be at least $42 billion dollars. Sea level rise projections will help build resiliency into coastal communities and reduce risks to life and property by allowing critical infrastructure to be constructed in a manner to withstand future weather events.”

Daniel Zarrilli, Director of the Mayor’s Office of Recovery and Resiliency said, “Accurate science is critical to effective climate adaptation. By adopting sea level rise projections that are consistent with the climate change projections produced by the New York City Panel on Climate Change, the State is demonstrating a forward-looking approach that reflects the best available science. These coordinated projections, which also inform the City’s investments, will support the critical work of making investments in climate adaptation and resiliency across the entire State.”

Cynthia Rosenzweig, study co-author and senior research scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University’s Center for Climate Systems Research, told Climate Central that the state’s use of the study ensures consistency between resilience planning at both the state and city levels because New York City’s climate change panel is using the same methods to determine the threat from sea level rise.

The proposed regulation and support documents are available on DEC’s Web site.