French regional elections: No one can dismiss Le Pen as an also-ran now
Since then, though, the left has been routed at every turn. The Republicans (formerly known as the UMP) and their centrist allies in the Union des Démocrates et Indépendants have staged a recovery but, most spectacularly, the FN has been resurrected from irritating also-ran (winning 11 percent of the national vote in 2010) to the main contender.
On to the next round
Looking at a map of the regions, France currently is “bleu-marine” in the north and in “le Grand Est” (Alsace-Champagne-Ardenne-Lorraine), where Le Pen’s right-hand man Florian Philippot has 35 percent of the votes. The FN is also leading in Burgundy-Franche-Comté and in the Centre-Val de Loire. And along south-western Mediterranean coast, the FN is also in pole position in the Languedoc-Roussillon-Midi-Pyrénées where Le Pen’s partner, Louis Aliot leads the FN list (cosy, non?). However, this region may be taken by the Socialists in the second round.
The Republicans lead in four regions, including Ile-de-France (the Paris region), where former minister Valérie Pécresse took 31 percent of the vote, 6 percent ahead of Claude Bartolone, the Socialist speaker of the National Assembly.
For their part, the Socialists are comfortably placed in Bretagne and the “Grand Sud-Ouest.” Their more optimistic electoral analysts think they could take up to seven regions in the second round, but four seems more likely and in either case, they have performed poorly. Hollande’s sudden and unprecedented leap in the opinion pools, following the 13 November, has had no discernible impact on the stump.
What strategy then, for the right and the Socialists before next Sunday? Sarkozy has insisted that the right will not withdraw its lists and has appealed to FN supporters to vote for his party in the second round. It’s an approach that is not without its risks. In 2012, many felt Sarkozy lost sympathy in the soft center by toughening his position on immigration and security in the second round of the presidential election to appeal to the far right.
And within the right, the results have been a deep disappointment after a good performance in March, causing some to ask whether Sarkozy really is the man for 2017.
On the left, there is confusion. The Socialists have withdrawn from the contest against Le Pen and Maréchal-Le Pen, and will ask their voters to back the Republicans and block the FN. In the Grand Est, however, the head of the PS list is, for now at least, refusing to stand down, despite party pressure.
Le Pen, as you would expect, already has her arguments ready. If she does not gain a majority in her own regional assembly, it will be due to a rigged system. Totting up the first-round votes for her opponents leaves the outcome of the second on a knife-edge.
Paul Smith is Associate Professor in French and Francophone Studies, University of Nottingham. This article is published courtesy of The Conversation (under Creative Commons-Attribution/No derivative).
