SyriaBashar al-Assad likely still to be in power when Obama leaves office

Published 7 January 2016

The U.S. government has privately concluded that President Bashar Assad of Syria is likely still to be in power when Barack Obama leaves the White House in January 2017. The Telegraph reports that a timeline which was prepared for American officials and obtained by the AP says that the earliest possible date for the departure from power of Assad and Alawite inner circled would be March 2017.

The U.S. government has privately concluded that President Bashar Assad of Syria is likely still to be in power when Barack Obama leaves the White House in January 2017.

The Telegraph reports that a timeline which was prepared for American officials and obtained by the AP says that the earliest possible date for the departure from power of Assad and Alawite inner circled would be March 2017.

The State Department acknowledged on Wednesday that the timeline was prepared late last year for Secretary of State John Kerry and other American diplomats.

John Kirby, the Department of State’s spokesman, said the document was a “staff-level think piece” which is “preliminary and pre-decisional” and not “an official position.”

He also said it was “not an accurate projection of plans by the international community to effect a political transition in Syria.”

The Telegraph note, however, that the document reflects the outline and details of a plan discussed in Vienna in November for a ceasefire, a new constitution, a transitional government, and an election. The elections are tentatively scheduled for August 2017.

It is not clear from the outline prepared for Kerry why March 2017 was the earliest time for Assad’s departure, or whether he would be allowed to compete in the August election.