ImmigrationU.S. undocumented population declines

In a just-released report, the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) finds that the U.S. undocumented population has fallen below eleven million for the first time since 2004. The report also offers evidence that the Mexican-born undocumented population continues to decline, falling by more than 600,000 since 2010. The study further describes trends in the undocumented population over the past few years for selected countries of origin and states of residence.

CMSNY says that the major findings in the report include:

• The total U.S. undocumented population continued to decline in 2014, and has fallen by more than a million since 2008
• The undocumented population in the majority of U.S. states declined after 2008; however, eleven states reached their maximum population in 2014, including Texas
• With the exception of Alabama and possibly Georgia, restrictive state immigration laws in 2010-2011 had little impact on undocumented population trends
• The Mexican-born undocumented population was about 600,000 smaller in 2014 than it was in 2010
• About 250,000 fewer undocumented immigrants from Mexico lived in California in 2014 compared to 2010
• From 1980 to 2014, the legally resident population from Mexico grew faster than the Mexican undocumented population

The annual estimates for 2010 to 2014 were derived by CMS based on statistics on the foreign-born population collected in the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS). The estimates for years prior to 2010 are based on estimates published in CMS’s International Migration Review, and are available upon request.

“Despite the claims of an ever-rising, out-of-control US undocumented population,” said Donald Kerwin, CMS’s executive director, “the number of undocumented has fallen each year since 2008. In addition, the number and percentage of foreign-born persons with legal status has increased. These trends should be applauded by partisans on all sides of the immigration debate.”

CMSNY notes that the Supreme Court announced last week that it will hear the case brought by twenty-six states challenging the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) and Deferred Action for Parents of Americans (DAPA) programs. See an earlier CMS analysis of the DACA- and DAPA-eligible in 2013 here.

— Read more in Robert Warren,“U.S. Undocumented Population Drops Below 11 Million in 2014, with Continued Declines in the Mexican Undocumented Population,” Journal of Migration and Human Security (DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.14240/jmhs.v4i1.58); and Robert Warren and John Robert Warren, “Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010,” International Migration Review 47, no. 2 (June 2013): 296-329 (DOI: 10.1111/imre.12022)