Predicting political surprises, uprisings before they happen
Successful mobilizations rely on a series of chain reactions — subject to positive feedback loops and explosive amplifications — which seem to depend on the personality types of those involved. Different personalities react in different ways to social information about what others are doing online, and how the visibility of their actions to others influences their behavior, says the research. In the past, political scientists have relied on indicators such as age, socio-economic status or ethnicity, but this research suggests that when a political act is tiny, such as liking or retweeting, these factors matter less.
The researchers found that extraverts were more likely to jump in early, starting or joining online collective action without needing clear signals that it would succeed. Meanwhile, agreeable types tended to wait for signs of success before joining. Those defined as “pro-social” (motivated by empathy and concern for the welfare and rights of others) were put off by platforms that promoted the visibility of their actions; whereas “pro-self” or individualist personality types were the most likely to be shamed into donating more money or participating online.
The book, Political Turbulence: How Social Media Shape Collective Action, concludes that like real turbulence in natural systems, political mobilizations can be broken down and analyzed scientifically. Just as a storm or a space rocket generates billions of data points, so does every campaign, petition, hashtag or unlikely political protagonist. The digital traces generated by tiny acts of participation may be studied in the same way as particles, atoms or cells in natural systems. It suggests that by using “data science,” including experimental methods, mathematical modelling and advances in computational methods — such as machine learning — researchers will be able to understand, explain, predict and even influence the political world and the underlying patterns of political preferences and concerns which drive it. Societies that ignore this new political turbulence do so at their peril.
Co-author Professor Helen Margetts, said: “If the time is right, political movements made up of millions of tiny acts of participation can now succeed without the trappings associated with political causes of the past, such as a charismatic leader or a political organization. That makes politics unpredictable, unstable and often unsustainable, one of the reasons why recent uprisings and revolutions have been short-lived. But we can use the data they generate to increase our understanding of today’s political world through experimental methods, mathematical modelling and machine learning. Big data and data science are not just for retailers analyzing their footfall after Christmas. We should use the same techniques in pursuit of democratic understanding.”
— Read more in Helen Margetts, Peter John, Scott Hale, & Taha Yasseri, Political Turbulence: How Social Media Shape Collective Action (Princeton University Press, 2015)
