European securityBritain’s exit from the EU would necessitate review of British defense posture: Expert

In a new report, Professor Malcolm Chalmers of the Royal united Services Institute (RUSI) presents a personal argument stating that a U.K. decision to leave the EU would be as significant a shift in U.K. national strategy, as the decision in the late 1960s to withdraw from bases East of Suez and,. As a result, the decision to leave the EU would necessitate a new Strategic Defense and Security Review (SDSR).

In November 2015 the UK government published its latest SDSR, setting out its national security strategy and announcing key decisions on strategic and spending priorities. RUSI notes that because of the political sensitivity of the subject, and the prime minister’s then-ongoing negotiations on EU reforms, it did not assess the defense and security implications of a U.K. exit from the EU.

Most of the leading participants in the referendum debate – from both sides – accept that an exit would lead to a fundamental change in the nature of the U.K.’s future relations with its European neighbors. As a result, if the U.K. votes to leave the EU there would be a very strong case to conduct a fresh review of the SDSR’s key strategic judgements and policy choices, which would likely begin by the end of 2016, with completion by the spring or summer of 2017.

In a 2017 SDSR current plans for defense spending over the next decade might have to be revisited, especially if projected GDP growth fails to materialize in the aftermath of an exit vote. A Brexit [British exit from the EU]  could lead to calls for the United Kingdom to return to a more global defense posture, but there could simultaneously be countervailing pressures on the United Kingdom to redouble its commitment to European defense, in part to address concerns that an exit from the EU would risk undermining confidence in NATO, and in part because the U.K.’s commitment to European defense would represent one of its few bargaining chips as it entered a period of tough negotiations on the terms of its future economic engagement with its EU neighbors.

At the same time, Brexit would not necessarily increase the likelihood that Scotland would then vote to leave the United Kingdom. Indeed, a British exit from the EU would probably make it significantly harder for Scotland itself to then become an independent member of the EU. But the possibility of Scottish independence, in some form, would remain an ongoing risk to the stability of the UK’s defense arrangements.

Key Points

• A UK decision to leave the EU would be as significant a shift in national strategy as the country’s decision in the late 1960s to withdraw from bases East of Suez. In these circumstances, it would be appropriate for the government to conduct a new Strategic Defense and Security Review, despite the fact that the last such Review was only completed in November 2015.
• Current plans for defense spending over the next decade might have to be revisited, especially if projected GDP growth fails to materialize in the aftermath of an exit vote.
• The end of the UK’s membership of the EU could lead to calls for it to return to a more global defense posture. Yet there could simultaneously be countervailing pressures on the United Kingdom to redouble its commitment to European defense, in part to address concerns that an exit from the EU would risk undermining confidence in NATO, and in part because the U.K.’s commitment to European defense would represent one of its few bargaining chips as it entered a period of tough negotiations on the terms of its future economic engagement with its EU neighbors.
• A UK vote to exit the EU would not necessarily increase the likelihood that Scotland would then vote to leave the UK. Indeed, a British exit from the EU would probably make it significantly harder for Scotland itself to then become an independent member of the EU. But the possibility of Scottish independence, in some form, would remain an ongoing risk to the stability of the U.K.’s defense arrangements

— Read more in Malcolm Chalmers, Would a New SDSR Be Needed After a Brexit Vote?(RUSI, June 2016)